Buffalo Sabres NHL Draft Lottery Simulation 5.0


Another week means it’s time for another Buffalo Sabres NHL draft lottery simulation!

This week, as with last week, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the best chance at winning the draft lottery, with a 20 percent chance. The Leafs have 57 points in 68 games entering Monday night.

The Edmonton Oilers have a 13.5 percent chance, while Calgary has an 11.5 percent chance. Edmonton has 61 points in 71 games, while the Flames have 61 points in 68 games.

A little further down, the Buffalo Sabres have a 7.5 percent chance at winning the draft lottery. The Sabres have earned 65 points in 70 games this season, for a 46.43 points percentage.

Other teams involved: Winnipeg, Columbus, Arizona, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Colorado, New Jersey, Carolina and New Jersey.

All have a chance, no matter how small, at winning the lottery. So let’s do some more simulations, shall we?

Once again, we’re using NHLLotterySimulator.com.

Here’s simulation number one today:

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Okay… no. Let’s not do this. There’s no way I can be okay with giving the Oilers ANOTHER first-overall draft pick. Nope, no way, nooooooope.

(Although Buffalo at number two is certainly okay – it could be worse.)

But Edmonton first overall? Nope.

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Alright, I guess this is slightly better. Still a top-three pick for Buffalo, albeit not in the top two.

And Toronto in the top two? Gross, but understandable since they’ve got the best chance at the top slot. Having Calgary first isn’t the best, but at least Auston Matthews wouldn’t be going to a rival of the Buffalo Sabres.

One more run here…

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Hahaha…. no thanks.

There’s no way any Buffalo Sabres fan is going to be happy, or at all okay with, seeing the Leafs pick up Matthews (or whoever the top pick is.)

While it’s great the Buffalo ends up second….. nope.

As per usual, I ran the simulator 97 more times and here are the results.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, as expected, ended up with the most first-overall picks, getting that selection 22/100 times.

Calgary wound up with 14 first-overall picks, while Edmonton and Winnipeg each had 13.

The Buffalo Sabres picked first overall just eight of 100 times. The Sabres overall had 29 picks in the top-three, including 10 second-overall picks and 11 third-overall.

But this week, unlike weeks past, Buffalo was much more likely to get a lower pick.

In fact, this week saw the Buffalo Sabres end up with a selection as low as ninth overall, a pick they got twice out of the 100 runs I did.

The Sabres also ended up with 35 seventh-overall picks and 25 sixth-overall picks. They also had nine eighth-overall selections.

Interestingly enough, only one team that is currently eligible for the draft lottery didn’t end up in the top three AT ALL in the 100 runs. That team? Philadelphia, the team with a 1% chance at winning the first-overall pick. Even in 100 simulations, the Flyers never got it.

The odds at the draft lottery are changing literally every day in the NHL, and the “race” for the first-overall selection is only going to keep going until the end of the regular season.

Next: Eichel's OT Winner Goal of the Year

No matter what, stay tuned to SabreNoise for more draft and draft lottery coverage as the season continues.