Buffalo Sabres vs. 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Teams: Breaking It Down
The Buffalo Sabres have their sights on the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Time to see how well the team did against this year’s playoff teams!
With the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs drawing to a close, many Buffalo Sabres fans find themselves looking forward to next season.
It’s hard to watch a game like Sunday’s double-overtime thriller between the new York Islanders and the Florida Panthers without wondering, “When are the Sabres going to be the team we’re all cheering for?” And as exciting as it was to watch John Tavares put his team on his back and lead the Islanders to a series-clinching win, there are some guys in the 716 that I would rather watch score dramatic goals: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Ryan O’Reilly, and so on and blah blah blah.
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There is much debate among Sabres fans about just how close this team is to making the playoffs, but the general consensus is, pretty close. To a man, the Buffalo Sabres feel like they will be playing meaningful hockey in April of 2017, and there are plenty of fans who feel like the team was just a player away from making the playoffs this season.
There’s a difference between MAKING the playoffs, however, and WINNING a playoff series. I would have bet a lot of money against this team if it had qualified for the playoffs this season, because I don’t see any scenarios in which the Sabres would have been able to secure four wins against the top-seeded teams in the Eastern Conference.
Just for fun, then, let’s take a look at how this team fared against the 16 NHL teams that did qualify for the postseason in 2016:
Opponent GP W L T OL PTS PTS% GF GA GF/G GA/G Games
Anaheim Ducks 2 1 1 0 0 2 .500 3 1 1.50 0.50 2 games
Chicago Blackhawks 2 0 1 0 1 1 .250 3 6 1.50 3.00 2 games
Dallas Stars 2 0 2 0 0 0 .000 1 6 0.50 3.00 2 games
Detroit Red Wings 5 1 3 0 1 3 .300 11 16 2.20 3.20 5 games
Florida Panthers 4 1 3 0 0 2 .250 10 17 2.50 4.25 4 games
Los Angeles Kings 2 1 1 0 0 2 .500 2 3 1.00 1.50 2 games
Minnesota Wild 2 1 0 0 1 3 .750 5 5 2.50 2.50 2 games
Nashville Predators 2 1 1 0 0 2 .500 6 4 3.00 2.00 2 games
New York Islanders 3 2 1 0 0 4 .667 7 6 2.33 2.00 3 games
New York Rangers 3 1 2 0 0 2 .333 9 13 3.00 4.33 3 games
Philadelphia Flyers 3 2 1 0 0 4 .667 8 9 2.67 3.00 3 games
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 0 2 0 1 1 .167 10 13 3.33 4.33 3 games
San Jose Sharks 2 1 0 0 1 3 .750 4 3 2.00 1.50 2 games
St. Louis Blues 2 0 1 0 1 1 .250 3 5 1.50 2.50 2 games
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 1 3 0 0 2 .250 7 11 1.75 2.75 4 games
Washington Capitals 3 1 2 0 0 2 .333 6 8 2.00 2.67 3 games
Totals: 14-24-6 34 .386 95 126 44 games
Thanks to hockey-reference.com for putting that table together for me (sort of – the site gave me Buffalo’s head-to-head results for the entire 2015-16 season, and I removed the teams that did not qualify for the postseason).
Keeping in mind that numbers don’t tell the whole story – for example, in how many of these games did the Sabres face the backup goaltender? Or, how many of these games featured injuries, on both sides? – here are a few observations:
1. The Buffalo Sabres were more than just a player away on offense from being a legitimate playoff team in 2015-16.
Sure, the Sabres could have made the playoffs if they had absolutely beaten up on the remaining 15 NHL teams that did not qualify for the playoffs, but what would have happened once the team started playing postseason games? Carnage, that’s what. The only playoff teams that Buffalo had a winning record against were the Flyers and the Islanders, and neither of those teams would have been Buffalo’s opponent had the team sneaked in as the 8th or even 7th seed in the East.
Buffalo averaged fewer than two goals per game against six of these sixteen opponents, and less than three against thirteen, which indicates a lack of offensive firepower – but do we really think a healthy Tyler Ennis would have made up even half of the 31 goals that separated the Sabres from these teams? Looking at how the Sabres struggled to score against the league’s elite teams provides perspective on why so many fans are clamoring for the team to enter the Steven Stamkos sweepstakes. As much as fans want to see the Sabres stick with the group of forwards that it is and grow the young talent the front office has drafted, it is tough to envision this roster closing the gap in just one season. The Sabres might qualify for the playoffs in 2016-17, but it won’t win a playoff series by relying on its offense.
Which brings me to . . .
2. There’s still a gaping hole on defense.
Buffalo allowed three+ goals per game on average to seven of these teams, demonstrating there is still much work to be done on the defensive side of the ice, including the goal-tending situation. The Sabres might feel good about their chances of winning some playoff games if it possessed a stingy defense and a clear-cut number one goaltender, but this team possesses neither of those two things.
Chad Johnson was clearly the more reliable netminder for this team in 2015-16 . . . but we all know that Tim Murray views Robin Lehner as “the man.” Problem is, Lehner was injured for the early part of the season, and then suffered another injury just when I felt he was begin to round into form. Expect to see a lot of Lehner in between the pipes next season, and depending on how much money he is asking for, Johnson could very well be wearing a different sweater, none of which will make Sabres’ fans too optimistic about the playoffs.
It won’t much matter who the Sabres start in goal, however, if their defensive corps continues to resemble the sort of blueline you would find in the AHL. Buffalo’s defenders don’t hit enough (none of their blueliners rank among the league’s top 30 hitting defensemen) or block enough shots (the Sabres only have one player ranked among the league’s top-30 shot blocking D-men) to make life more difficult for opposing teams, two factors that contribute to Buffalo’s allowing 30.6 shots per game, 9th-worst in the NHL.
Long story short: the Buffalo Sabres just don’t have the sort of elite defense and goaltending you need to play with the big boys.
Next: Brian Gionta Aiding Marcus Foligno's Development
Is any of this news? Not if you have watched more than, what, five Buffalo Sabres games this season? This team might have been closer to a playoff berth had Tyler Ennis remained healthy, and as I have said numerous times before, a healthy Ennis may have kept Jamie McGinn in town, as well. Even if those two players had been enough to help the Sabres’ offense resemble that of a playoff team, though, this team has serious holes on the back-end that are going to make any playoff run they enjoy a short-lived one without some serious retooling this summer.