Buffalo Sabres Free Agency Grades: Kyle Okposo

The Buffalo Sabres made one of the biggest splashes in the NHL free agency pool so far.

About a month ago, I was busy looking at as many pending free agents as I could, in order to narrow down who I thought the Buffalo Sabres would go after come July 1.

One of the first players I highlighted was Kyle Okposo, and even though I did agree that it would be tempting to add the right-winger’s scoring, ultimately I argued that the left wing and blueline would be the areas the Sabres front office would spend the most money trying to fill.

Fast forward to today, five days after the Buffalo Sabres signed Okposo to a 7-year, $42 million contract.  As it turns out, the Sabres managed to address holes on the left wing (Aexander Nylander) and blueline (Dmitry Kulikov and Justin Falk), as well as adding some heavy firepower to the right side of the ice.

How ’bout that?

Looking at the HERO chart below, courtesy of The Hockey Writers site (and further courtesy to Dominic Galamini over at Own The Puck, who invented the HERO chart!), it’s easy to see why so many teams expressed an interest in Okposo, especially once Steven Stamkos announced his decision to remain in Tampa Bay.  Whether it’s individual performance, or his possession numbers, Okposo plays at a second- to -first-line level on both ends of the ice.  His only blemish occurs in shot suppression, which is measured by the CA60+/- number, which is actually a little lower in this chart than it is over at Own The Puck, where Okposo falls in the third-line projection.  Still, pairing Okposo with Ryan O’Reilly, who is a monster at shot-suppression, should help the Sabres balance out Okposo’s biggest weakness.

The argument against Okposo has always been that his offensive numbers were the product of playing alongside John Tavares, but while there is little doubt that he did enjoy success playing alongside the Islanders’ captain, it’s not like the Sabres have brought in Matt Moulson 2.0.    Okposo actually split his minutes fairly evenly between Tavares and Frans Nielsen in 2015-16, and had the second-best scoring season of his career with his 22-42-64 points.  There is little reason to doubt that Okposo’s numbers will decline playing alongside Evander Kane and ROR.

The only problem I have with signing Okposo?  The length of the contract. Paying him $6 million a year is extremely affordable, but locking him in for seven years means the Buffalo Sabres are going to be enjoying the tail-end of Okposo’s career.  Okposo is already 28 and at the tail-end of his prime days, so how many more years he can produce 60+ points will be affected by many things, but the fact that Father Time is one of them scares me a bit.  Will the Sabres get seven solid offensive seasons out of Okposo?  Five?  Three?   Let’s hope he pulls a Jaromir Jagr and makes GM Tim Murray look like a freaking genius with this signing.

Next: Sabres In A Tough Spot With Evander Kane

The Buffalo Sabres became a better team with the signing of Kyle Okposo, possibly even a playoff-caliber team, so fans in the 716 and beyond have plenty of reason to rejoice.   The team did not overpay for Okposo’s talents, but may wind up with a player who is one the decline in 3-4 years.  Overall, though, this was one of the best moves made by any NHL team in terms of free agent signings thus far.