Buffalo Sabres Stats: Projecting the floors and ceilings for each goalie

We may see three goaltenders lining up between the pipes for the Buffalo Sabres at various points this season. What are their realistic floors and ceilings?

Goaltender is perhaps the biggest mystery on this Buffalo Sabres team, and they were the one position group I didn’t grade so well. Not because I think Devon Levi will be a bust, or that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will have another disappointing season: Overall lack of experience factored into the grade, so it’s hopefully something I revisit sometime after the season gets underway.

But if I were to make preseason projections, at this point for each member of the Sabres goaltending unit and where they currently stand, I’m instead opting for a range as opposed to direct numbers. While they won’t be accurate after probably the season’s first month (how many projections are?), they will nonetheless provide a decent measuring stick on what you can expect from the Blue and Gold’s goaltenders this season.

Projecting the floors and ceilings for the Buffalo Sabres goaltenders

1 – Devon Levi

Ceiling: Games: 45, GAA: 2.5, Save Percentage: 0.920, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.750

Floor: Games: 35, GAA: 3.00, Save Percentage: 0.900, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.500

Devon Levi made 41 starts last season across three different leagues – NCAA, NHL, IIHF. That said, he’s proven capable of at least handling an extended workload, even if the NHL is a different breed than college hockey.

However, he showed us good returns in his seven starts, and with better defense in front of him, Levi will know what to expect. There will be growing pains, as with all rookies in their first full season, but Levi showed us enough to prove he can at least put up average statistics this season. His ceiling, however, will put him in the convo for the Calder, even with Connor Bedard over in Chicago.

2 – Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Ceiling: Games: 35, GAA: 2.75, Save Percentage: 0.910, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.600

Floor: Games: 25, GAA: 3.33, Save Percentage: 0.890, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.400

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was, at best, streaky last season, having put up a good month of January, but his struggles in November, December, February, and March have left fans in Sabre Nation wondering whether he’s even worthy of a backup spot in the NHL. He will get a chance to prove he can stick around this season, presumably behind Devon Levi.

However, it’s important to be somewhat cautious about Luukkonen’s ceiling, and I have it slightly lower than what he accomplished during his limited starts in 2021-22. As for his floor, it basically resembles what we saw last year, but as mentioned in the above section, with better defense, it should be a challenge for Luukkonen to bottom out.

3 – Eric Comrie

Ceiling: Games: 25, GAA: 2.90, Save Percentage: 0.905, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.500

Floor: Games: <5, GAA: 3.50, Save Percentage: 0.885, Quality Starts Percentage: 0.250

Eric Comrie is the Number 3 guy at the moment, though he will get a chance to compete with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for the backup, or even the 1B job. If Comrie plays well in camp (assuming he’s not traded anywhere first) and in the preseason, then there is a chance he sticks around as a third goaltender and perhaps even nears his ceiling.

The likelier scenario, at least from a games standpoint, is the floor. And once again, better defense should keep Comrie from hitting his projected floor numbers, but he gave us little reason to trust him last year, so at this point, anything goes.

(Numbers from Hockey-Reference and Money Puck assisted in the projections)