Projecting the floor and ceiling of the Buffalo Sabres first line

The Tage Thompson line proved to be one of the NHL’s best in 2022-23, and they should primarily fuel the Buffalo Sabres again in 2023-24.

Two years ago, we had no idea who would start on the Buffalo Sabres first line. And if someone said Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch would be not just the trio, but would ultimately become one of the league’s finest, we probably would have laughed and given them some snarky comment.

Fast forward to 2023-24, and Skinner’s career resurgence just keeps growing while Tage and Tuch have officially entered their respective primes. So how will this terrific trio produce this season? Honestly, it’s realistic to see their points production dip. Not because they will have short-lived primes, but because the Cozens line, even without Jack Quinn early on, will be producing at a higher level.

But that doesn’t mean the trio won’t have high respective ceilings. Keep reading for an idea of just how many points each may put up, and note, this projection is assuming the trio plays at least 75 games apiece.

Projecting the Buffalo Sabres top line’s floor and ceiling

1 – Tage Thompson

Ceiling: 106 points, 57 goals, 49 assists, 18.5% shooting percentage

Floor: 75 points, 40 goals, 35 assists, 12.5% shooting percentage

Over the past two seasons, Tage Thompson either scored more goals than assists, or he evened out. In this exercise, his number of goals are superseding the assists in both instances. And as you can see, his floor is nearly 20 points below while his ceiling is just over 10 points above last season’s totals, reflecting my projection that the Cozens line will produce more this season.

2 – Alex Tuch

Ceiling: 95 points, 45 goals, 50 assists, 18.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 70 points, 31 goals, 39 assists, 13.0% shooting percentage

Alex Tuch’s production skyrocketed in 2022-23, and like Tage, he has a chance to supersede his points total from last season, as you will also see below with Jeff Skinner. However, expect Tuch’s final numbers to land either in the center or better yet, closer to the floor with the Cozens line, especially Dylan Cozens himself raring to see their number of points increase. But in the event that doesn’t occur, then it’s likely that Tuch sets a new career high.

3 – Jeff Skinner

Ceiling: 90 points, 40 goals, 50 assists, 17.5% shooting percentage

Floor: 70 points, 29 goals, 41 assists, 11.5% shooting percentage

With 82 points last season, Jeff Skinner notched a career high that can realistically increase in 2023-24. But as I’ve noted several times in this piece, don’t be surprised if his final numbers rest closer to his projected floor with Dylan Cozens, J.J. Peterka, and presumably Casey Mittelstadt shouldering some of that production.

Overall, most of us couldn’t care less if Tage, Tuch, and Skinner score fewer points if it means more players scoring and helping the team win enough to reach the postseason. In fact, it’s probably better, since it not only takes pressure off the top three; it also shows that they can produce consistently as a team.

(Numbers from Hockey-Reference and Money Puck assisted in creating these projections)