Projecting the floor and ceiling of the Buffalo Sabres second line

The Buffalo Sabres second line will look a little different heading into the 2023-24 season, but don’t expect them to miss a beat in the first few months.

We have no idea who will be lining up alongside Dylan Cozens and J.J. Peterka when the puck drops on October 12th, but Casey Mittelstadt appears to be the likeliest candidate. Mittelstadt had an outstanding 2022-23 season, so for the purposes of this piece, he will get the honor.

So how will Cozens, Peterka, and Mittelstadt perform this season, and what could we expect from Jack Quinn when he returns? Keep reading to gain an idea of what you can expect from these four – yes, four – members of the Sabres.

Projecting Buffalo Sabres second line’s floor and ceiling

1 – Dylan Cozens

Ceiling: 80 points, 35 goals, 45 assists, 16.7% shooting percentage

Floor: 60 points, 25 goals, 35 assists, 12.7% shooting percentage

Having scored 68 points last season and since he’s projected to line up alongside an evolving player in J.J. Peterka and one that had already enjoyed a breakout in Casey Mittelstadt, it’s not farfetched to believe Cozens can hit 80 points. Few saw 68 coming last season along with a lucrative contract extension, so don’t be surprised if he reaches that number.

If the Buffalo Sabres first line takes off, however, it could mean Cozens may dip below what he scored last year. But don’t expect too much of a drop-off, as he will see a lot of ice time and opportunities to find twine with Mittelstadt likely filling in for Quinn, and therefore, passing often.

2 – J.J. Peterka

Ceiling: 55 points, 20 goals, 35 assists, 13.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 40 points, 15 goals, 25 assists, 8.0% shooting percentage

J.J. Peterka had a solid but unspectacular first year with the Sabres, but his remarkable IIHF outing gives me enough faith to believe he will threaten or break the 50-point mark. Going bold, 55 points isn’t out of the question, especially if he’s fed the puck often in the offensive zone as opposed to Cozens.

There is a slight chance Peterka has a second season similar to what we saw from Cozens in 2021-22, and those numbers reflect it. If Peterka experiences another round of growing pains, however, we don’t need to push the panic button. It just means the breakout may not occur until Year 3, as it did with Cozens.

3 – Casey Mittelstadt (projected) – 41 games

Ceiling: 35 points, 9 goals, 26 assists, 14.1% shooting percentage

Floor: 25 points, 5 goals, 20 assists, 8.1% shooting percentage

Obviously, head coach Don Granato will be switching up these lines at times this season, but for simplicity, and all else being equal, I’ll give Mittelstadt and Quinn 41-game projections each on the second.

As you can see, I got Mittelstadt picking up where he left off last season, rolling with way more assists than goals. On the second line, I’m looking for him to feed Cozens and Peterka the puck, and letting them make their respective plays, as you could have probably guessed in the number of goals I got them scoring in the above sections.

4 – Jack Quinn – 41 games

Ceiling: 30 points, 10 goals, 20 assists, 14.1% shooting percentage

Floor: 15 points, 5 goals, 10 assists, 8.1% shooting percentage

Quinn will have a reacclimation period no matter what when he returns in early 2024. If he has a tough time getting going during the second half of the regular season, you will likely see him produce toward the floor here, but if he hits his stride in February, March, and April, then 30 points is more than realistic.

As with my projection for the Buffalo Sabres first line, expect each player listed to hit somewhere in the middle of their overall outlook. Peterka’s and Cozens’ numbers may look bold, especially their respective ceilings, but the former could be on the verge of a serious breakout while the latter’s production could increase and take away some points from the first line.

(Numbers from Hockey-Reference assisted with those posted above)