Projecting the floor and ceiling of the Buffalo Sabres fourth line

The Buffalo Sabres fourth line won’t score often, but they will set up sequences for the top scoring lines. They will, however, have their moments.

With Jack Quinn’s injury, the Buffalo Sabres fourth line could look different for the first half of the season. Third line center Casey Mittelstadt will likely play wing on the second line, and Peyton Krebs could be the favorite to take Mittelstadt’s spot.

Further, Kyle Okposo could only be a part-time player this season, so I’m slotting him at just 41 games as opposed to a full 82 contest slate. Krebs will play 41 games on the third line, and 41 on the fourth, while Tyson Jost takes Krebs’ place at center, and Zemgus Girgensons plays wing.

Early in the year, look for a 14th skater to split time with Okposo, and just for simplicity, they won’t be mentioned. Following Quinn’s return, Okposo and Jost should be switching in and out, so therefore, Jost will have a projected 60 games, while the 14th skater will take the remainder.

Projecting Buffalo Sabres fourth line’s floor and ceiling

Peyton Krebs – 41 games

Ceiling: 10 points, 3 goals, 7 assists, 14.5% shooting percentage

Floor: 7 points, 2 goals, 5 assists, 8.5% shooting percentage

Peyton Krebs saw a 22-point ceiling on the third line, and a 14-point floor. Here on the fourth line, look for Krebs’ overall points productivity to wane, but he will remain a primary reason for many scoring sequences. Therefore, his lack of points on the fourth doesn’t mean he will be any less productive.

Tyson Jost – 60 games

Ceiling: 25 points, 8 goals, 17 assists, 11.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 19 points, 6 goals, 13 assists, 6.0% shooting percentage

Just like last season, Tyson Jost will be a solid role player whether he lines up at center or winger in 2023-24. Expect him to fill in for Krebs, and for the former first round pick to play an effective game in transition. He will also make a strong defensive impact every time he finds himself in the lineup.

Kyle Okposo – 41 games

Ceiling: 18 points, 8 goals, 10 assists, 10.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 13 points, 5 goals, 8 assists, 7.0% shooting percentage

Like Jost, look for Okposo’s impact to be mainly on the defensive side, but like both Jost and Krebs, he could very well be a catalyst for big plays. If the Buffalo Sabres limit his ice time this season, then you could see Okposo remain an effective player.

Zemgus Girgensons

Ceiling: 21 points, 10 goals, 11 assists, 12.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 15 points, 7 goals, 8 assists, 7.0% shooting percentage

Zemgus Girgensons will be the hard-hitter, and he could even find himself kicking inside and play center. You should also see Girgensons lining up at the faceoff dot often when he sees ice time, especially with starts in the defensive zone.

Overall, you won’t see much points production from this line, which is typical of the fourth. But they should give the Buffalo Sabres solid defensive play and set things up for the top-six.

(Statistics from Hockey-Reference assisted in each respective player’s floor and ceiling)