Just 15 games separate the Rochester Americans from what could be yet another trip to the Calder Cup Playoffs.
Alternatively, it could be 15 games until the Americans find themselves starting their offseason early.
While the past few seasons have seen the Amerks make the playoffs with relative ease, that hasn't exactly been the case this year. Through 57 games played, Rochester sports a record of 25-23-5-4 (wins, losses, overtime losses, shootout losses), giving the team a total of 59 points and a winning percentage of .518. Both metrics are considerably lower than the team's averages over the past few seasons; Rochester finished with at least 80 points in each of the last four seasons, while their win percentage has been above .600 in each of the last two seasons.
Despite the dip in regular-season performance, it's not all bad news for Rochester
In terms of the Americans' place in the AHL's divisional standings, it's a mix of good and bad.
On one hand, the Amerks sit three points clear of the Belleville Senators for fifth in the North Division standings; the top five teams in the North make the Calder Cup Playoffs. The team also has games in hand on every other North Division team, with as little as one game in hand on the third-place Cleveland Monsters and as many as four games in hand on the first-place Laval Rocket. In terms of the teams in direct competition for the final playoff spot in the division, Rochester holds three games in hand on Belleville and two on the seventh-place Utica Comets.
On the other hand, it's not just a three-point gap that the Amerks have to worry about. Six points separate Rochester in the final North Division playoff spot and Utica in last place. And Belleville is smack dab in the middle of those two teams.
That said, the Amerks have more than enough games in hand on both teams to remain in control of their own destiny. Win any handful of those games in hand and we might be talking about a far less open playoff race.
If the Americans start dropping games in hand? Then it's time to worry.
What should be of additional concern is that the Amerks still have one more game to play against Belleville on April 3. If Belleville keeps the pressure up by converting results on their own end while Rochester fails to gain significant ground of their own, that game could become an important one when it comes to the final standings.
The Americans also have a chance to make up ground on the fourth-place Toronto Marlies; with two games in hand and one head-to-head matchup remaining, Rochester could get within three points of the Marlies with just 60 minutes of Marlies hockey played.
Outside of the playoff chase, Rochester still has to play the second-place Syracuse Crunch three times and the third-place Monsters twice; though both teams have sizable advantages in the standings, a sweep of the remaining games and wins in any games in hand could give Rochester the chance to make things interesting further up the North Division standings.
Even with the above said, it's safe to say that Rochester is locked into a tight playoff race and that's something fans can use to get behind the team.
Everyone loves a good postseason chase, right?