Almost 15 years since their last playoff game, a 5-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers during the first round of the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Buffalo Sabres are on the cusp of returning to the NHL postseason.
That is a sentence that was once unthinkable, even when the team was playing just shy of a .500 points percentage well into December.
But a 10-game winning streak to close out 2025, coupled with an 11-5-2 run that took the Sabres into the Olympic break, has put Buffalo well within the playoff picture with 21 games to go.
And with their 3-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night, the Sabres have not only matched their win total from the 2024-25 season, but they also gave themselves an eight-point cushion over the Columbus Blue Jackets for a playoff berth and an eleven-point edge on the Ottawa Senators, who sit in sixth in the Atlantic Division.
Buffalo has put itself in prime position to end its 14-year playoff drought
Though there are still 21 games left, Buffalo's positioning does make some schedule-watching possible. Currently, the Sabres sit in second in the Atlantic Division with a record of 36-19-6 and a point total of 78, which is just two points shy of the first-place Tampa Bay Lightning.
To do the number crunching, I'll be considering the points pace of each of the Buffalo Sabres, Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers, and Ottawa Senators. Why those teams in particular? They're the first four teams outside the playoff picture and they all sit within seven points of the final playoff spot.
In considering that the Buffalo Sabres scored 78 points through their first 61 games, it's possible to calculate their point-scoring pace at about 1.28 points per game. Their division rivals — the Senators — are scoring at just about a 1.12 point-per-game pace with 67 points in 60 games.
With 69 points through 63 games played, the Capitals are currently scoring around 1.10 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets' point-scoring pace is equal to 1.17 points per game (70 points divided by 60 games played), while their Metropolitan Division rivals in Philadelphia have 67 points through 60 games, resulting in an average of 1.12 points per game pace.
With those metrics in mind, it becomes possible to calculate each team's maximum point tally in considering their respective point-per-game measures. This would be done by multiplying each team's pace with the remaining games before adding that number to the total points scored thus far. Upon doing the math, it's possible to come up with the following final-stretch point hauls (all rounded to even numbers): 27 points for Buffalo, 25 points for Ottawa, 21 points for Washington, 26 points for Columbus, and 25 points for Philadelphia. Those numbers would see Buffalo at 105 points, Ottawa at 91 points, Washington at 90 points, Columbus at 94 points, and Philadelphia with 92 points.
When will the Sabres officially clinch a berth in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs?
With the smallest gap in points being an eleven-point difference between Buffalo and Columbus, it's possible to infer that this scenario would see the Sabres clinch a playoff berth with five games to spare. That would mean that Buffalo's April 4th game against Washington could serve as the game that ends Buffalo's playoff drought.
For the fun of it, let's run that same procedure but with point-per-game paces that only consider the last ten games. This would give Buffalo a point-scoring pace of 1.5, while Ottawa would have a rate of 1.4. In the Metropolitan, Washington would have a point-scoring pace of 1.2, while Columbus and Philadelphia would be scoring 1.7 and 1.0 points per game respectively.
In terms of point totals for the final stretch, those point-scoring paces would see Buffalo score 32 more points while Ottawa would record another 31 points. Meanwhile, Washington would earn another 23 points, Columbus would record another 37 points, while Philadelphia would add another 22 points.
As a result, we can determine projected point totals with point-scoring rates for each team's last ten games: Buffalo would be at 110 points while Ottawa would have 96 points. For the Metropolitan Division teams, Washington would be at 92 points, Columbus would be sitting on 107 points, and Philadelphia would accumulate 89 points.
In this scenario, Columbus would end the season three points back of the Buffalo Sabres, meaning that Buffalo would only clinch a playoff berth during the penultimate game of the season: a road game against Chicago on April 13th. That said, it's possible that Columbus' point-scoring rate would see them finish third in the Metropolitan Division instead of being in a wild card spot.
Outside of the point-scoring paces, the math is relatively simple. Ottawa can score a maximum of 111 points, Columbus' ceiling is 114 points, Washington can only get to 107 points, and Philadelphia can only score 111 points maximum. If we're talking about passing those point maximums, Buffalo would need to score 31 points to ensure they finish ahead of Washington, 35 to get past Philadelphia and Ottawa, and 38 to clear Columbus and secure a berth. Divide each number by two (to express this calculation in terms of games won and lost) and you have some magic numbers: 16 to clear Washington, 17 to clear Ottawa and Philadelphia, and 19 to clear Columbus and clinch the playoffs. Under this scenario, the latest that Buffalo could clinch a playoff berth would be during their penultimate game of the season against Chicago.
Outside the realm of possibility, if Buffalo won their next nine games and Columbus lost their next ten, the Sabres would clinch a playoff berth (96 points for Buffalo against a maximum of 94 for Columbus). That would mean that the earliest date in which the Sabres can clinch their first playoff berth in 14 years is March 22nd, when the Sabres travel to play Anaheim and the Blue Jackets play against the New York Islanders.
The Sabres still have work to do before potentially celebrating a postseason return
We now have a general timeframe in which Buffalo could clinch a playoff berth. The more far-fetched scenarios would see the Sabres clinch a berth in late-March, while the worst-case scenarios put the Sabres' clincher in and around the final few games of the season. Though Sabres fans are more than encouraged to circle all twelve games from March 22nd onwards, I think the April 2nd game against Ottawa or the April 4th game against Washington will be the game that sees Buffalo secure a long-awaited playoff berth.
With all of the above said, it's worth noting a disclaimer: anything can happen. The Sabres still have two games left against the Capitals and one game left against each of the Senators and Blue Jackets. There's even the possibility that a team like the Boston Bruins or the New York Islanders, both of whom sit just inside the playoff bracket, ends up falling out and is forced to fight their way back in; such an occurrence would almost certainly shift the calculus behind the Eastern Conference playoff chase.
Winning the aforementioned games could accelerate Buffalo's push for a playoff berth, while losing those games could suggest some brand new calculations. Buffalo does get three of their four matchups against the teams on the outside looking in during the month of April, but that could act as both a boon and a drawback for the team. The Sabres still have plenty of time before the bulk of those playoff-chasing teams come up on the schedule, but a failure to build additional ground or put those teams out of the picture entirely could raise the stakes at a very tense time of the season.
I'll end this by saying that I'm not trying to speak anything into existence or put a jinx on the team. That said, Sabres fans can start to dream of a playoff return, one that could very well become reality in just about a month.