The Buffalo Sabres and defenseman Conor Timmins reached an agreement Sunday on a two-year, $4.4 million contract extension to avoid an arbitration hearing. Timmins was acquired in June from the Pittsburgh Penguins alongside prospect Isaac Belliveau in exchange for Connor Clifton and a second-round draft pick.
Timmins' new deal tentatively sets the Sabres' defense pairs ahead of the 2025-26 NHL season. Here's a look at how the group is shaping up:
Pair 1: Bowen Byram - Rasmus Dahlin
Pair 2: Owen Power - Michael Kesselring
Pair 3: Mattias Samuelsson - Conor Timmins
Although it's still possible there's a shake up before an Oct. 9 Opening Night showdown with the New York Rangers — Byram and Samuelsson remain potential trade candidates — the pairings above most likely represent Buffalo's six-man defense to open the new campaign.
Pair 1: Will the real Bo Byram please stand up?
Byram looked like a man on a mission after arriving to Buffalo in a March 2024 trade. He scored five points (three goals and two assists) in his first four games with the Sabres, which raised hopes the organization had found another game-changing building block.
Instead, the former Colorado Avalanche star has struggled to find any semblance of consistent success since that initial surge. The one caveat to that remark is his play when on a pair Dahlin, who's essentially a rising tide who lifts all boats thanks to his all-around greatness.
Here's the proof: Last season, Byram produced a 54.6% expected goals for percentage (xGF%) when playing with Dahlin at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. That number plummeted to 43.0% when on the ice with any other Sabres defenseman.
Buffalo needs the 24-year-old Canadian to start driving offense on his own more regularly. Not only would it make the Dahlin tandem more dangerous, perhaps even one of the NHL's best, but it'd give the coaching staff more flexibility while building its pairs when injuries inevitably arise.
Byram has flashed the ability to take his game to that next level, especially early in his Avs tenure, but the Sabres need that to become the norm rather than the exception.
Pair 2: Does Kesselring unlock Power's true potential?
The Sabres have searched far and wide for a partner who can make Power look like the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft. By no means has the University of Michigan product been a bust, tallying 111 points in 242 career games, but he hasn't fully lived up to that lofty draft status.
Not having a steady presence next to him has been at least part of the problem. He's played with 15 different defensemen just over the past three seasons, per NST. To no surprise, his best 5-on-5 minutes over that span have come next to Dahlin (57.5 xGF%).
Buffalo is doing everything in its power (no pun intended) to avoid putting all of its eggs in one basket, though. The Power-Dahlin pairing has been a "break in case of emergency" type arrangement. In a perfect world, they'll each drive a different pair and deepen the defensive options.
Kesselring, 25, becomes the Sabres' latest attempt to fill that longtime void. The 2018 sixth-round pick was acquired last month in the blockbuster JJ Peterka trade. He's coming off a solid season with the Utah Mammoth, recording 29 points (seven goals and 22 assists) while playing all 82 games.
That said, there's always uncertainty when a player is set to take on a bigger role. Kesselring averaged less than 18 minutes per game for Utah last season. That number could jump closer to 22 minutes in Buffalo, particularly if he earns a regular spot on the penalty kill.
A successful Power-Kesselring pairing would be a massive step in the right direction toward the Sabres finally ending their 14-year playoff drought.
Pair 3: Can Samuelsson thrive in a smaller role?
The Sabres have asked a lot of Samuelsson over the past five years, and they showed their faith in him with a seven-year, $30 million contract in 2022. The deal, which runs through 2029-30, came as he was often thrust into a first-pairing role alongside Dahlin.
Samuelsson isn't that type of high-end player, though. At his best, he's a stay-at-home, third-pair defenseman who also contributes significantly on the penalty kill. Going from 20-plus minutes per game into the 16-17 range could also help keep him healthy amid a growing list of past injuries.
His situation highlights why it was so important for the Sabres to deepen their defense corps. There's a real chance the New Jersey native provides solid value in the more niche defensive-minded role as opposed to asking him to serve as a first-pair cornerstone.
In addition, the onus is on Samuelsson to do a better job protecting his teammates. He received ample criticism for his lack of response after a high hit on superstar Tage Thompson by New Jersey Devils winger Stefan Noesen last season. Samuelsson admitted more should have been done in the aftermath.
It's possible the Samuelsson-Timmins duo becomes a true showdown pair for the Sabres, which would take some pressure off Dahlin in terms of always facing an opponent's top scoring threats. That's going to require a legitimate bounce-back year from the alternate captain, however.