By now, there should be no argument against the fact that home ice was going to play a monumental role in this series between the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens. And it got to Buffalo once again in Game 3; a 6-2 loss on Sunday night was the culmination of a raucous Bell Centre and the fact that the Habs were able to use that home crowd to completely outplay the Sabres for the second straight game.
Now, just five days after the Sabres took a 1-0 series lead, the Habs completely flipped the script and gained a 2-1 series advantage with yet another game at the Bell Centre to come on Tuesday.
The math going forward isn't exactly in Buffalo's favor, either. From the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs onward, teams who win Game 1 and drop the following two games are just 10-11 in Game 4. Such teams are 2-1 in Game 4 during this postseason, with the lone loss recorded by the Edmonton Oilers in Game 4 of their series against the Anaheim Ducks, while the 2024 postseason saw that same group of teams go 1-5. Funny enough, the Oilers became the lone exception that year when they defeated the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.
With the possible Game 4 outcome essentially a coin toss on paper but significantly anti-Sabres when considering that the game is being played in Montreal and not Buffalo, it's possible to see the emergence of another important learning curve for this young Sabres team.
The Sabres learned how to win when ahead, but they must now learn to win while trailing
And they have to learn that fast. This Habs team has won their last four rounds when being the first team to reach two wins in the series. They just did it against the Tampa Bay Lightning, leading 2-1 after Game 3 before ultimately advancing in seven games, and that streak dates back to the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers (though three of the rounds won in such fashion came in 2020 and 2021).
It's also worth noting that teams who lead a series 2-1 after starting on the road have gone on to win 145 times out of 235. That comes with a .617 winning percentage, meaning that the Sabres currently have a 38.3% chance of taking the series when considering the NHL's historical records.
But there are signs that the Sabres can overcome the odds yet again. Their start to Game 3 wasn't exactly that disastrous; Tage Thompson's ice-breaking goal of the game came with just a minute played and as a result of significant offensive pressure from the Sabres. And the Sabres did well to keep the Habs from scoring until late in the first, though the defensive dam broke shortly after.
The struggling power play also showed signs of life. Sure, going one-for-four on the power play is never a great thing per se, but the Sabres are now at 25% on the power play in this series and above 10% in the playoffs, which is progress.
Another fast start for Buffalo would more than certainly help the team to forget the disaster that was Game 3. It would have to consist of getting on the board first and forcing the Habs into conceding the game's first penalty through early and consistent offensive pressure. That's more or less how they beat Boston in Game 4 after getting outworked during the opening half of the series, and it's a strategy that could still work against the Habs.
The math works against Buffalo, but recent history may be in the Atlantic Division champions' favor
Kurt Russell said it best in the movie Miracle on Ice: "Great moments are born from great opportunities."
Five months ago, the Sabres made the most of a great opportunity. After the Sabres lost to the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames by a combined score of 11-5 in early December, they rattled off a 10-game win streak and then another eight-game winning streak almost two months later. They would also lose just five more games by more than three goals after losing nine such games prior to the 10-game win streak (including the Winnipeg and Calgary games).
After getting out-faceoffed, out-fanned, and outscored 11-3 by Montreal in Game 2 and 3, this should be yet another great opportunity. After all, this same Habs team capitalized on their own great opportunity when they ended a three-game skid in the first round of the COVID-altered 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs and went on an 11-2 run to the Stanley Cup Final, one that included a seven-game win streak en route to a third-round tie with the Vegas Golden Knights.
But like how the elder Russell's iconic quote acts as inspiration for this team, what came next in his speech must be acted upon, too.
They need to skate with the likes of Jake Evans, they need to stay with expectation-exceeding Alex Newhook, and they need to find a way to shut down the resurgent Cole Caufield, who recorded a goal and an assist on Sunday.
And this Sabres team can do it.
And who knows? Maybe this test and the steps required to pass it helps the Sabres get closer to becoming one of the world's best hockey teams in doing so.
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