The story of home ice advantage is one that is closely intertwined with the outcome of this series, particularly in terms of strategy. When extending that to the first two games of the series, the Buffalo Sabres may have won the battle, but the Montreal Canadiens won the war.
Any momentum the Sabres had earned from their Game 1 win over Montreal came crashing down on Friday night. The Sabres did well to make this a competitive affair, but a dreadful first period, among other factors, would ensure that the Habs' on-ice and in-the-stands invasion of KeyBank Center would achieve one of its goals: making this a best-of-five.
Whereas Buffalo had home-ice advantage heading into the series in terms of the overall regular-season finish, Montreal's fan support essentially confirmed that all seven games (if required) would essentially be home games for the Habs.
Now it's a best-of-five, and the Habs have home-ice advantage.
And as the series shifts to the nucleus of Montreal's passionate fanbase, a raucous yet iconic Bell Centre, it becomes Buffalo's turn to try and silence a dedicated home crowd.
Silencing the Bell Centre may prove incredibly difficult, but the key is there
In particular, the Sabres have to make a calculated yet risky gamble involving their defensive tactics.
They must take the focus off forwards Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov.
Yes, you're reading that right. The Sabres have to refocus the defense away from two of Montreal's most dangerous scorers.
While there is a chance that both could easily reignite their scoring touch at any given moment, the statistics show that it might not be worth starting a Game 3 defense that is fixated on keeping both Caufield and Demidov off the scoresheet.
A pointless Game 2 for Caufield meant that his point-scoring drought would extend to five games; his last points came in a 3-2 loss in Game 4 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. His total point haul for the Stanley Cup Playoffs stands at four (one goal and three assists), though he was a post away from ending his point-scoring drought at the end of Game 2 against Buffalo.
Despite recording an assist in Game 1 against the Sabres, Demidov has yet to record a goal in these Stanley Cup Playoffs. His Game 1 assist was also his first point since Game 1 against Tampa Bay, though he has yet to convert that point into any consistent scoring form.
Meanwhile, Habs captain Nick Suzuki leads the team in playoff points with eight to his name (three goals and five assists). The Habs player that is second on the team in scoring is also a conventional point-scorer; Lane Hutson sits just a point back of Suzuki with two goals and five assists.
But it's the remaining top point-scorers that should surprise viewers; forward Zach Bolduc and defenseman Kaiden Guhle are both tied for third in point-scoring with five points.
Given the above observations, it's possible to infer that, despite Suzuki and Hutson continuing to lead the charge, the Habs' depth has done well to step up in the absence of two of their top point-scorers. And it showed in Game 2; among others, bottom-six forwards Josh Anderson and Phillip Danault would both record assists, with the latter helping defenseman Mike Matheson score the eventual game-winning goal.
How to defend Montreal's depth?
One of the keys to Buffalo's success heading into the series was to defend the blue line.
That remains constant moving forward, but the defense has to do a much better job at preventing the Habs from establishing chances deep in their own zone. Suzuki's breakaway chance in the first period was a perfect example of this; a poorly-defended pass led to Suzuki waltzing past the Sabres' defense and into their zone like there was nobody home (the defensive play almost certainly suggests there wasn't).
Goaltender Alex Lyon would make the save when all was said and done, but simple blue-line defense prevents the Habs from establishing an offensive zone presence and breaking down the defense well enough to create consistent scoring chances.
That was exactly how the Sabres gave up the second goal to Montreal; by committing to defending the blue line, Buffalo can reduce the amount of offensive chances that get through and give the points very little time to extend possessions or get the puck towards the net.
Extended shifts also give the Habs the opportunity to put their strongest and in-form point-scorers on the ice; in this case, that would be the likes of Guhle and even another bottom-six forward in Zach Bolduc. By extension, the Sabres are likely stuck defending their own end and forced to extend defensive shifts by icing the puck and leaving tired players on the ice.
Preventing those extended defensive shifts and ensuring that any Habs possession can be turned around in due time will be key in forcing Montreal to try and break the Sabres down using their top forwards.
With two of them stuck in a funk of sorts, that could be easier said than done, ultimately making the Sabres' job a lot easier while also restoring the scoring advantage that they had heading into the series.
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