The Buffalo Sabres' playoff chase is well into its final phase, one that could actually get accelerated over the next week.
Entering Thursday's NHL action, the Sabres' magic number was sitting at 21. In one night, that number has fallen to 17.
On Buffalo's end, a 5-0 win over the San Jose Sharks pushed the magic number down by two points to 19. While the Columbus Blue Jackets secured a 6-3 win over the New York Rangers, the magic number still fell by two courtesy of the New York Islanders' 3-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators, which led to Columbus inheriting the Islanders' playoff spot.
While the Sabres still have to play both the Islanders and Blue Jackets, wins in both games would see additional four-point reductions in the magic number. And the Sabres could earn yet another two-point reduction in the magic number without the need to take the ice; the Islanders and Blue Jackets will play each other on Sunday in a game that could very well decide the direction of one of the three playoff berths available through the Metropolitan Division.
Could the Montreal Canadiens play into the Sabres' calculus?
Only a few days ago were the Canadiens projected to be Buffalo's first-round playoff opposition.
And yet again, the odds of that happening have shifted. After Montreal's 3-1 loss to Detroit, the Red Wings are now the likeliest first-round playoff opponent for the Sabres, while the Habs find themselves second in those odds.
Even with a 75% chance to make the playoffs, those odds could change dramatically as the Habs play the Islanders on Saturday in a game that could see New York take back control of a playoff spot. A win in regulation over Montreal — combined with a win for Columbus and a three-point game between the Red Wings and Boston Bruins — would see the Islanders leapfrog the Canadiens for a spot in the playoff picture. Either way, Buffalo's magic number could tick down further; an Islanders loss would take the magic number down to 15 while a Habs loss, coupled with a Sabres win over the Los Angeles Kings, would see the magic number go down to 16.
There are a few other ways Montreal could play a role in reducing Buffalo's magic number. The Habs still play the Blue Jackets twice before the season is out while another encounter with the Islanders awaits on April 12. Regulation losses for any of the three teams would see Buffalo's magic number come down so long as the team that loses is outside of the playoff picture.
When can the Sabres clinch? And would the result of the Islanders-Habs game on Saturday change that?
If one were to do the math, the earliest date that the Sabres could clinch a playoff berth is March 28, when the Sabres host the Seattle Kraken. Clinching on that date would require the Sabres winning their next five games and the East's 9th-place team (currently the Islanders) losing their next four. The resulting calculation would see Buffalo at 102 points and the Islanders only able to reach 101, meaning that the Sabres would clinch a postseason berth as a result.
If the Islanders and Sabres traded wins over their next nine games, then Buffalo would clinch a playoff berth on April 6, the day they host the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Given that a regulation loss by either the Islanders or Habs would trim Buffalo's magic number by two, the Sabres would therefore only require a maximum of eight games to clinch a playoff berth. As a result, Buffalo's contest against Washington, set to be played on April 4, would serve as the likeliest point in which the Sabres could clinch a playoff berth.