Radim Mrtka, the Buffalo Sabres' first-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, is viewed as a doubtful third-pair defenseman in new prospect pool rankings from Watch The Stats.
Prospect analyst Nick Iacoban has been counting down the league's top farm systems ahead of the 2025-26 season. The Sabres were among the batch announced Thursday, checking in at No. 16 overall with just under five NHL players expected to emerge from the team's group of top prospects.
Mrtka's status as an NHL long shot is the biggest surprise from the release, which listed Konsta Helenius as Buffalo's No. 1 prospect.
Helenius hype continues to build
The Sabres' 2024 first-rounder endured an up-and-down first season in North America. He tallied 35 points (14 goals and 21 assists) in 65 regular-season games for the AHL's Rochester Americans. Growing pains were always expected, though.
"His NHLe did regress this year, but he still produced at a level that puts him on track for a solid NHL career," Iacoban wrote. "A positive step forward is needed to change the direction his odds are currently heading, but I like his chances."
Helenius' progress was on full display during the Amerks' playoff run. The 19-year-old Finland native recorded three goals and three assists in eight postseason contests, and his defensive game held up well despite often being asked to take on some tough matchups.
While the 5-foot-11 center has never had the look of an elite scorer, his combination of a strong two-way foundation and playmaking upside still puts him on a path to become a top-six forward for Buffalo.
Luke Osburn rapidly rising up the ranks
Osburn made a substantial jump in his second season with the USHL's Youngstown Phantoms, which allowed him to move up to No. 3 in Watch The Stats' Sabres prospect rankings behind Helenius and fellow defenseman Maxim Strbak.
The 18-year-old Michigan native raised his point total from 23 in his first season with the Phantoms to 41 in 55 games last year. The sizable uptick production came as the puck-moving blue liner made a conscious effort to become more involved in the attacking zone.
"I tried to up my offensive game a lot last year and keep progressing on the defensive side, winning puck battles, being better on the net front and stuff like that," Osburn told Bill Hoppe of the Times Herald in July.
The defenseman will shift his development to the University of Wisconsin this season, and he could join the Amerks within a year or two if he finds quick success with the Badgers.
Will Mrtka be a bust for Buffalo?
The Sabres' desperate need for more right-shot defensemen in their system and Mrtka's impressively versatile skill set for a 6-foot-6 player made him seem like a perfect fit for the organization with the ninth overall pick in the 2025 draft.
Watch The Stats' analysis doesn't agree, however. It places the Czech defender at No. 6 in Buffalo's prospect pool, one spot behind Noah Ostlund, a 2022 first-rounder.
"Noah Ostlund and Radim Mrtka are both former 1st round picks that the model isn't super high on," Iacoban wrote. "They should get plenty of opportunities because of where they were drafted, so we'll see if they can take advantage of that or not."
The Sabres are hoping Mrtka can eventually become a long-term answer next to Rasmus Dahlin on the team's top pair. That's still possible, especially if his offensive game takes a step forward this season, but it's far from a guarantee despite his high draft status.