Elliotte Friedman raises key Sabres question ahead of Round 2 vs. Canadiens

The tide of the Buffalo Sabres' opening-round playoff triumph over the Boston Bruins changed late in Game 2, when goaltender Alex Lyon replaced a struggling Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and brought much-needed stability to the crease to help the club advance in six.

Can he do it again?

That's the question on the mind of NHL insider Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who's frequently discussed the streaky nature of Lyon's career since late in the regular season, when the 33-year-old journeyman endured a dip in performance and then suffered an injury.

"You know, I think for Buffalo, Lyon's on one of his streaks," Friedman said Monday on the 32 Thoughts podcast. "How long does this streak last?"

The 2022 Calder Cup champion — he posted a .923 save percentage across 12 games to help lead the Chicago Wolves to an AHL title four years ago — stopped 106 of the 111 Bruins shots he faced in the previous round (.955 SV%).

Head coach Lindy Ruff's decision to hand the starting role to Lyon looks obvious in hindsight, but it came with legitimate risks. The veteran goalie had posted an .847 SV% across his last six regular-season starts before missing the final few weeks with the injury.

"The thing with Lyon too is, are we going to see a point where they are going to have to go to somebody else? He might just punch me in the face when he sees me this week," Friedman joked. "If you're a Sabres fan, you want to see this [hot streak] keep going."

He added: "We understand we're in a league now where no goalie plays every game anymore. So, that's one of the things I'm curious in this series. Does it come to a point — Buffalo's already switched their guy once, will they have to do it again?"

The Sabres will hope that's not the case because UPL, who looked incredibly shaky in the first two games against the Bruins, is a major question mark. That said, Buffalo did successfully rotate its goalies throughout the season, so making another change wouldn't be uncharted territory.

Breaking down the Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens second-round goaltending battle

Like the Sabres, the Canadiens used three goalies during the regular season: Jakub Dobes, Sam Montembeault and Jacob Fowler. It was Dobes who seized the starting job to open the playoffs, and he was terrific as the Habs advanced past the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games.

Let's check out the projected Lyon vs. Dobes matchup based on their Round 1 performance, including an analytic view via MoneyPuck:

Here's a look at how all six goalies from the two clubs performed in the regular season:

What makes this clash between Atlantic Division rivals intriguing is the fact they both played tightly contested series in the first round. The Bruins and Lightning were capable of slowing down the pace and limiting high-danger scoring chances.

Buffalo and Montreal have the potential to play a far more up-tempo, offense-friendly series, which would put a lot more pressure on the goaltenders to fight off those prime scoring opportunities.

That's why Friedman's prediction that at least one team, if not both, could end up making a switch between the pipes during what could be a seven-game marathon may ultimately prove prophetic.

Although the regular-season numbers may suggest the Sabres have a slight edge in net overall, it feels like a hypothetical Luukkonen vs. Fowler matchup would favor the Canadiens.

All told, Buffalo enters the series as a modest favorite — 62% chance to advance, according to HockeyStats.com — but goaltending could quickly swing those numbers in Montreal's favor, especially if Lyon is unable to maintain his recent heater.

Goalies typically play the most important role in a series that's otherwise even on paper, and it seems like that'll certainly be the case as the Sabres and Habs fight for a spot in the Eastern Conference Final.

Game 1 is set for Wednesday night at the KeyBank Center in downtown Buffalo.

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