The Buffalo Sabres have secured 44 of a possible 54 points over their past 27 games and they've climbed to third place in the highly competitive Atlantic Division. They're on pace to skate in the NHL's Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2011.
So, while all criticism must be examined within the context of those terrific on-ice results, the play of Buffalo's fourth line is nevertheless an emerging concern.
Yes, injuries are part of the problem.
Justin Danforth, an offseason signing to give the roster another defensive-minded forward, has been sidelined since early in the campaign with a lower-body injury.
Jordan Greenway has struggled to get back to full strength after summer surgery on a core issue, so the Sabres put him on an NBA-style load management plan to lessen his workload, but even that hasn't yielded the desired improvement in his performance.
Josh Dunne played through a nagging injury for several weeks before the Sabres finally placed him on injured reserve in mid-January.
Then there's Peyton Krebs, who's been asked to move way up the lineup card because of injuries to top-six forwards like Josh Norris, Zach Benson and Jiri Kulich.
Yet, injuries are only part of the explanation because even when Greenway and Krebs are skating alongside Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line, the numbers are underwhelming.
What the stats say about the Sabres' fourth forward line
While Buffalo has been one of the NHL's best teams since the calendar flipped to 2026, head coach Lindy Ruff has leaned less and less on his fourth line and third defense pair. It's easy to see why.
Here's a look at the Blue and Gold's five worst players in 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) since Jan. 1, per Natural Stat Trick:
- Zach Metsa (40.1%)
- Jordan Greenway (28.8%)
- Tyson Kozak (27.2%)
- Beck Malenstyn (24.7%)
- Josh Dunne (22.0%; only two games played)
As you can see, most of the names mentioned above are listed. Krebs isn't too far ahead (43.9%), and most of his success has come when moving up into the top six. The fourth line hasn't received much of a boost when he returns to his rightfully spot on the bottom line.
It's important to note those numbers aren't simply bad. They're borderline unplayable. Ruff can't rely on a group that allows the opponent to generate around 75% of the expected goals.
To mitigate the issue, the Sabres have often cut their bench down to three lines and two defense pairs. That doesn't just happen late in the third period, either.
In Tuesday night's loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Malenstyn and Isak Rosen, an offensive-minded prospect being asked to play a defense-first role, only played about nine minutes each. Kozak skated 12 minutes because of some penalty-killing responsibilities.
It's the same thing on the blue line. Metsa and Jacob Bryson played just 11 minutes in the overtime loss to the Atlantic Division leaders.
The Sabres would be wise to seek out more effective depth options leading up to the 2026 NHL trade deadline on March 6. Players who Ruff can trust to hold their own, so he can feel confident giving them more than 12-14 shifts per night.
Pressure begins to build on Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekalainen
Kekalainen, known for his bold moves while leading the Columbus Blue Jackets front office, has taken a conservative approach since replacing Kevyn Adams in Buffalo. Of course, it's impossible to blame him for not wanting to mess with success as his team climbed the Eastern Conference standings.
It'll soon be time for him to make his first significant moves, though.
The NHL enters a roster freeze for the 2026 Winter Olympics on Wednesday. By the time it ends on Feb. 22, there will be less than two weeks until the trade deadline. It'll be a mad dash for contenders looking to bolster their squads ahead of the playoffs.
For the first time in more the a decade, the Sabres are on track to make the postseason field and thus should be heading toward the deadline firmly as a buyer after years of selling.
Sure, it'd be great for Buffalo's chances if Kekalainen could land a star forward like the New York Rangers' Artemi Panarin, Calgary Flames' Nazem Kadri or St. Louis Blues' Robert Thomas to boost the offense and, perhaps more importantly, the power play.
It's unclear whether that type of blockbuster addition will be possible, but the Sabres' new general manager can't let the deadline pass without making any moves of substance. It's time to make aggressive moves with an eye toward a playoff run.
At minimum, that should include at least one depth piece in both areas (forward and defense), and those players having some postseason experience would be preferred.
A lineup that's 20 strong entering the playoffs would give Buffalo a much better chance to make some noise than one that's overly dependent on about 11 or 12 players.