The Buffalo Sabres may be targeted for an offer sheet during the 2026 NHL offseason because of the club's limited financial flexibility this summer, but it may not be aimed at the restricted free agent most people expect.
Although the offer-sheet discussion has centered around rapidly improving winger Zach Benson, Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff predicted center Peyton Krebs could generate interest because other organizations know the Sabres would "surely match" any proposal to Benson.
"Given Krebs' first-round pedigree, however, he's the type of player who might earn a higher valuation in the eyes of another team and, with very little cap space to play with, GM Jarmo Kekalainen might have to shrug his shoulders and let Krebs go if the AAV is too rich," Larkin wrote Tuesday.
The 25-year-old Canadian is coming off a campaign where he posted career-high totals in goals (12), assists (27) and hits (201) while posting a plus-13 rating and playing all 82 regular-season games. He added six points (two goals and four assists) in 13 playoff appearances.
Now the question is whether those are signs of legitimate development or merely a benefit of receiving a lot of first-line minutes during the latter stages of the season.
Krebs slowly earned the trust of head coach Lindy Ruff as the Sabres consistently rotated their lines because of injuries. It garnered him an extended look alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, an expanded role he maintained until the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, when his offense suddenly went silent in a series loss against the Montreal Canadiens.
The 5-foot-11 center had been an offensive black hole for a vast majority of his NHL career, which began with the Vegas Golden Knights before he arrived to Western New York in 2021 as part of the blockbuster Jack Eichel trade.
Krebs simply never became the top-six playmaker most draftniks anticipated when Vegas selected him with the No. 17 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. He's still provided value as a team-first, high-energy, fourth-line center, though.
Now, his modest breakout season may have caught the eye of other franchises that'll hope it's a sign he's a late bloomer who can be acquired from Buffalo at a low price given the Atlantic Division champions' cap considerations.
Buffalo Sabres would have to seriously entertain any RFA offer sheet given to Peyton Krebs
There are a lot of variables in play for the Sabres this summer.
Most importantly, Kekalainen has around $11 million in salary-cap space to work with — PuckPedia projects it at $11.9 million, but that's based on a roster without a No. 7 defenseman — and, ideally, the first order of business is giving Benson a long-term contract extension.
The Sabres would also love to retain UFA winger Alex Tuch, but his asking price (reportedly around $10.5 million annually) will likely be too rich for the Blue and Gold.
Buffalo must also maintain some future financial wiggle room as Bowen Byram, Jack Quinn, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund and Konsta Helenius will all require new contracts in the next few years.
Then there's the fourth-line logjam.
Krebs, who should still reside on the bottom line if playing for a Stanley Cup contender, is joined by Jordan Greenway, Sam Carrick, Justin Danforth and Tyson Kozak as players who will be aiming to fill one of those three spots. Beck Malenstyn (another impending UFA) would join the list if re-signed.
It's easy to suggest the Sabres should trade Greenway (and his bloated $4 million AAV), but it's possible no other team will be willing to take on the final year of that contract. Danforth ($1.8 million AAV) is another low-profile trade candidate, while Kozak would have to clear waivers for the AHL.
So, could it be a situation where Buffalo welcomes a Krebs offer sheet (or trade offer) to create some cap space to retain Malenstyn? It could then trot out a fourth line of Carrick, Malenstyn and either Greenway, Danforth or Kozak, which would create a solid trio on paper.
Finally, what would the return be on a possible Krebs proposal?
AFP Analytics estimates the 2021 WHL Player of the Year to receive a three-year, $10.64 million contract in free agency. The resulting $3.55 million AAV would equate to a 2027 second-round draft pick as offer-sheet compensation.
That feels like an acceptable offer from the Sabres' perspective. At minimum, it's something Kekalainen would have to strongly consider depending on how his other offseason work is progressing.
Is there another NHL team out there with enough belief Krebs still has more to give in order to hand him that type of contract? We'll soon find out.
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