Buffalo Sabres fans have witnessed this song and dance before. The team plays an impressive stretch of hockey, creating optimism the franchise's long-term playoff drought will finally end, only to immediately falter and lose all of its progress in the standings.
The Sabres will attempt to avoid a similar fate amid a nine-game winning streak that's moved them to ninth in the Eastern Conference with 44 points. They're seventh in the East, and owners of a wild-card spot, if you go by points percentage (.579).
Dan Rosen of NHL.com noted Wednesday that Buffalo is playing far better defensively during the hot streak (1.89 goals allowed per game), saying that's "usually a recipe for sustained success," but pointed out the need to maintain the improved form.
"If that continues, the Sabres will be legit, sustainable and a playoff team," Rosen wrote. "They can't get fat on a winning streak; they have to be consistent in their approach and resilient to get results, two traits that have eluded them in previous seasons."
Buffalo hasn't skated in the NHL's Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2011, and its only topped 90 points once over the 14-year postseason absence (2022-23). The club is currently on pace for 95 points, which would have been enough to reach the playoffs each of the past three years in the East.
Buffalo Sabres' underlying numbers during their winning streak give fans reason for pause
The Sabres are racking up victories thanks to uncharacteristically strong play in close games, especially in terms of defending late one-goal leads. While it's the hallmark of a competitive team, the question is whether it's sustainable.
Buffalo's analytic metrics during the nine-game surge are a bit concerning. Here's a look at where they rank in a few key 5-on-5 categories since the run began with a Dec. 9 triumph over the Edmonton Oilers, per Natural Stat Trick:
- Expected Goals Percentage: 44.98% (30th in the NHL)
- Scoring Chance Percentage: 43.93% (31st)
- High-Danger Chance Percentage: 45.77% (25th)
There are a few caveats to consider, though.
First, the Sabres have scored the game's opening goal six times during the streak. They've also typically been leading in the third period. That's a lot of time where they're attempting to defend a lead, which can skew the final numbers in the opponent's favor.
Second, Buffalo is historically a strong finishing team. It ranked eighth in the NHL with 269 goals last season despite missing the playoffs. That element went missing early in the current campaign, but it's returned recently as the Blue and Gold have lit the lamp 32 times over the past nine games despite ranking 32nd in expected goals for over that stretch.
Strong finishing, impenetrable defense and hot goaltending is a combination that can carry a team to great heights, though it creates risk of a serious drop off if one or two of those factors go cold. That's why the underlying numbers must be taken into consideration.
Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff hopes the urgency created by the crowded nature of the conference standings will help his team keep its foot on the gas.
"We've got that understanding and we know how tight the standings are, so you feel like, 'Boy we have to win another one,'" Ruff recently told Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic. "You have to keep winning because it's packed in there tight and a win takes you up four places. A loss with other teams playing could take you down."
Buffalo (20-14-4) faces a tough New Year's Eve test when it visits the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Stars (25-7-7) on Wednesday night. It's a game that could paint a clearer picture about whether the Sabres have truly turned a corner.
For now, a positive buzz is beginning to build in Western New York about the organization for the first time in years thanks to the winning streak paired with finally moving on from general manager Kevyn Adams and replacing him with Jarmo Kekalainen.
However, all of those good vibes will once again fade away if the Sabres follow the script from past years by sliding back down the standings just as quickly as they climbed them.