3 reasons the Sabres must trade for Pavel Buchnevich
The Buffalo Sabres need an experienced, productive winger, and Pavel Buchnevich could be on the trade block this offseason.
With one year remaining on his contract and the Sabres still boasting quite a bit of cap space, Pavel Buchnevich could find himself playing in another blue uniform for the 2024-25 season. His name has once again come up in the rumor mill, and Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams still needs to address his top-six, so trying to acquire a proven talent like Buchnevich should grace the top of his priority list.
Buchnevich initially made a name for himself with the New York Rangers, where he put up a solid 195 points and 79 goals in 301 games. He proved to be a good asset on the power play, and he also showed off some physicality, finishing his time in New York with 257 hits.
He then moved on to the St. Louis Blues in a trade that also involved a second-round pick and Sammy Blais, who ironically became his teammate in the 2022-23 season. His time with the Blues has also been rather stellar, as Buchnevich has so far put up nearly a point per game in the Gateway to the West, with 206 in 216 contests.
He’s logged 83 goals over the past three seasons, good for 27.7 per year, and his overall shooting percentage since arriving in Gateway City sits at a remarkable 15.7. He’s also still a rather physical player and one who is good at stealing pucks and setting his team up with scoring sequences.
Why would St. Louis want to trade Pavel Buchnevich to the Sabres?
When you look at the Blues, they’re a team that just missed the playoffs this past season, so you may ask why general manager Doug Armstrong would want to trade such a luxury asset. St. Louis has been revamping their roster over the past two seasons, looking to become a younger team, so that would leave players like Buchnevich to find a place on the trade block.
But why would it make sense for Kevyn Adams to trade what would likely be at least a first-round pick, an A-prospect, and at worst, a B-prospect for the 29-year-old? There are three reasons to discuss, as Buchnevich would help the Blue and Gold in a few ways.
Buchnevich has been a 25-plus goal scorer for three seasons
Regardless of whether the 2024-25 Sabres score the way they did in 2022-23 or if they more closely resemble the 2023-24 group, Pavel Buchnevich would immediately upgrade the unit. Should this team play like they did in 2022-23, adding a player of Buchnevich’s scoring caliber will let the Blue and Gold close in on 300 goals.
But as a 25-plus goal scorer in each of his previous three seasons, Buchnevich would at least get the Sabres near the 270-goal range in a worst-case scenario, which would put them in the top 10 if we’re comparing them to teams this past regular season. You can even argue Buchnevich had a ‘down’ season in 2023-24 despite putting up 27 goals since he wasn’t entirely consistent in finding the net, or at least by his own standards.
Buchnevich’s shooting percentage clocked in at just 13.0, and it was one of the lowest marks of his career. Still, 27 goals are 27 goals, and despite the lower conversion rate, it shows us that Buchnevich isn’t afraid to take shots.
At times, the Sabres hesitancy led them to pass the puck around instead of taking the open shot, and it’s one reason their Corsi For at 5-on-5 sat in the back half of the league. Someone like Buchnevich coming to town would mean there’s a player in Buffalo who won’t hesitate to take an open shot. Just for the record, he finished the year with 207 shots on goal.
Buchnevich would give the Sabres more defense in their forward group
The Sabres were better defensively last season, but much of that credit goes to their breakout goaltender, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. There were many times when the team still looked dysfunctional in the defensive zone, and you may recall several games when it felt like they were in their own end of the ice for far too long.
Buchnevich is just one player, and his defense isn’t all-world, but he does enough that it would help the Sabres. Even before he arrived in St. Louis starting in the 2021-22 season, Buchnevich had gotten sticks on the puck often, logging over a half-takeaway per game since 2019-20.
He would help the Sabres out on what was still an inconsistent but improved short-handed unit, and at even strength, his offensive-to-defensive zone starts ratio was nearly 50-50. This shows he can be trusted in the defensive zone, and thanks to a 52.8 percent Corsi For, it’s also evident that Buchnevich is good at helping his team create chances in the offensive zone.
Let’s point out that the Blues were a below-average scoring team in 2023-24, and Buchnevich was still making an impact. Buffalo has far more scoring potential, and that alone would make Buchnevich’s play in the defensive zone more worthwhile to help a team like the Sabres regain puck possession and snag more time in the offensive zone.
Buchnevich will be a top-six talent for the next half-decade
I’m never a huge fan of making a show-stopping trade for players long after they have established themselves, but Buchnevich is in a spot where he looks like he could step in and be part of this Sabres team for at least another five seasons if they acquired him. He may be heading into his age-29 campaign, but it will only be his ninth year in the league, so he’s still got a lot of miles left on his skates.
Considering how well Buchnevich has played over a trio of seasons in which he never scored fewer than 63 points as a member of the St. Louis Blues, the odds of him coming in and putting up shoddy numbers are low.
The only question that remains is where on the top-six would the Sabres put the winger should a hypothetical trade occur? It ultimately depends on which offseason moves Kevyn Adams makes, but if we kept the lineup as is, there would be a good chance Buchnevich factors in on the first line.
At this point, we need to ask ourselves whether he has more upside than the Sabres current first-line left winger, Jeff Skinner. Skinner enjoyed a couple of outstanding seasons, but he dropped off in 2023-24, and his overall consistency hasn’t been what we have seen from Buchnevich. That said, if a trade for Buchnevich occurred, he’d be a great addition to the top line while Skinner drops to the second or even the third.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)