3 ways the Sabres can keep surging and earn a spot in the NHL playoffs
The Buffalo Sabres are 16-11-1 since the beginning of January, and they have since climbed back into the wild card race.
While the Sabres looked like sellers at the NHL trade deadline, a sign that a team doesn’t plan on contending this year, they are just five points out of the second wild card spot heading into Wednesday, so this season is far from over. Ironically enough, it’s the same number of points they find themselves out of a wild card spot as they had on March 13th, 2023, even if they have four fewer at the moment.
That said, Buffalo can still snap that 12-year, and looming 13-year playoff drought with ease if they can keep playing the same way they have been since the beginning of January. Sure, it’s still a stretch, but consider the following:
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been more inconsistent than the Blue and Gold have multiple times this season, the Detroit Red Wings, New Jersey Devils, and Pittsburgh Penguins are ailing, the Washington Capitals (barring a few outlying games) can’t score, and next to one exceptional winning streak, the New York Islanders haven’t been a good team in 2024.
Sabres could make the NHL playoffs by playing consistent hockey
Inconsistency has been the constant theme this season, and while the Sabres have just one three-game winning streak of three games in 2023-24, they only need to win more than they are losing to make a serious run in the current environment. If they earn two points in three out of every five remaining games and win Game No. 82 on the schedule, they will finish the year with 87 points, which could be enough to take a wild card this season.
This would give them a record of 41-36-5, but if they earned two additional points via overtime losses, it puts them at 89 points, and well within position to snag that final wild card spot. This is assuming the Isles fall back to Earth, and the other teams mentioned continue at their current trajectory, but the possibility is there.
So the question becomes: How can the Sabres do everything in their power to make this happen? Here are three ways the Blue and Gold can keep up their winning ways in 2024 and sneak into the playoffs.
Play a defense-first game
If the Sabres have one component this season that they didn’t have in 2022-23, it’s decent goaltending led by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Last season, Luukkonen wasn’t on anyone’s shortlist to be a franchise goaltender, but that has changed this year through 41 games and 38 starts for the 25-year-old.
It’s become clear that Luukkonen will get his saves, and that he will make more than his fair share of unprecedented ones none of us would have expected from him last season. But that doesn’t give the Sabres a ticket to get lazy in the defensive zone, especially in games when Luukkonen’s backup, Eric Comrie, is in the net.
Through 66 contests, Buffalo hasn’t been the same team in the offensive zone that they were last season. And despite a pair of seven-goal games in March, their best bet is to shift their focus to playing a defense-first game. Frustrate opponents when they invade the Sabres zone, take away chances, and keep playing to what has become, at many times, a strength this season.
Luukkonen has been great, but the Sabres have also been a solid defensive team in stretches. It reflects with their 14th spot in the league with 198 goals allowed, and it must keep up between Games 67 and 82.
Keep attacking the net and taking advantage of rebounds
Buffalo remains inconsistent from a scoring standpoint, but if you noticed how well this team played Detroit, their constant scoring and overall excellent play offensively came because they were crowding the net. Jordan Greenway and Zach Benson create chaos better than anyone else, but we also saw blueliner Bowen Byram get involved in one of his two goals last night.
The Blue and Gold aren’t getting consistent in the offensive zone through the final month of the regular season, but they will maximize their scoring chances by playing a physical game around the crease. Doing so will also open opportunities for their best scorers like Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka, Alex Tuch, and Rasmus Dahlin.
Opposing skaters will have a rough time boxing out the likes of Greenway and Tuch, while Benson can just sneak into the crease unnoticed. This is where Skinner and company can set up along the perimeter, creating opportunities that can lead to goals from the outside, or by deflections from the guys surrounding the crease.
Again, we won’t see seven-goal games or even four-goal games from the Sabres throughout the playoff race except on rare occasions, but wreaking havoc around the net has worked far more often than it hasn’t. If they want to maximize their chances of making the NHL playoffs, surrounding the crease should be a key for every remaining game.
Play a strong game at 5-on-5
Despite enjoying a much higher points percentage since the calendar year began, advanced statistics indicate the Sabres aren’t incredibly different from the team that struggled between October and December 2023. Their power play, while better in recent weeks, is still producing at just 16.58 percent, and their penalty kill is also below the NHL average.
However, their 5-on-5 game boasts a shooting percentage and save percentage hovering near the average, while they are at a solid 51.6 percent in the Corsi. They are also higher than average in overall Corsi For vs. Corsi Against, while their xGF, actual goals for, and actual goals against have all trended in the right direction.
Their 140 actual goals for deserve more recognition, as the stat line rests 10 goals above the average of 130 following their win over Detroit. Only their xGA is below average, albeit slightly. They haven’t fared as well in the high-danger chances category, but they are at 50.1 percent in overall scoring chances for.
Playing at 5-on-5 has been this team’s strength this season, even if it's roughly toward the league average in even their best categories. However, if the Sabres can boost their 5-on-5 game just a notch, it will go a long way throughout these last 16 games.
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