Previously, I used the term "reverse Minnesota" to describe the Buffalo Sabres' decision to move from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to Alex Lyon following the former's struggles during the opening two games of the playoffs against the Boston Bruins.
I then applied the idea of a "reverse Boston" to analyze why any series lead is fragile in a series involving the Bruins and why Buffalo should be wary.
Considering how the Vegas Golden Knights acquired former Sabres captain Jack Eichel at the decent price of a lightly-used Peyton Krebs, an experienced Alex Tuch, and a couple draft picks (one of which became Noah Ostlund), I'll refer to the contents of this article as a "reverse Vegas."
The Golden Knights' desire to win could cost them a veteran netminder, and the Sabres should be on high alert
By now, we all know that the Golden Knights are willing to do whatever it takes to consistently succeed and contend for a Stanley Cup.
They demonstrated just that in recent times by firing head coach Bruce Cassidy, who brought the Golden Knights to their first Stanley Cup back in 2023, and replacing him with the often-controversial John Tortorella in an effort to bring the team away from the edge of the playoff picture. A 6-0-2 run to end the regular season did just that while also securing the team their second consecutive Pacific Division title.
The team's resurgence also came as a result of the re-emergence of goaltender Carter Hart. Hart was 11-3-3 during his first season with the Golden Knights, while the team's other two netminders — Stanley Cup-winning goaltender Adin Hill and former New Jersey Devil Akira Schmid — went a combined 28-23-14.
At the same time, goaltending is going to be a key question facing the Golden Knights this offseason. Hart is eligible for a contract extension and, given his regular-season and playoff performance, he will get some form of an offer from the team's front office.
But that could easily take the form of a significant pay raise, something that could restrain Vegas in that same goaltending department. Hill is under contract with Vegas until the end of the 2030-31 campaign and he is going to be owed $6.25 million annually until that point. At the same time, Schmid is set to hit restricted free agency at the conclusion of the current campaign, and I can guarantee you that any team will take a flyer on a goaltender that posted a .922 save percentage and a 2.13 goals against average just a few years ago.
The team is also $12 million above the salary cap and they're only projected to be around $4.6 million below it at the start of the next campaign. And that's not considering the fact that they have to find a way to keep forward Pavel Dorofeyev while also building a serviceable defense.
If the Golden Knights are going to remain cap-compliant, they will very likely have to sacrifice Hill's contract and look to rebuild the goaltending room behind Hart.
This is where Buffalo could take a flyer on Hill and recruit him as a veteran complement for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Alex Lyon is the backup to Luukkonen, but the Sabres could benefit from some additional veteran goaltending, especially considering the goalie group's playoff struggles and the fact the team has embraced a three-goalie rotation.
While Hill has had his struggles — he recorded a mere .871 save percentage this past regular season — he has been a reliable netminder in the past. When he won the Stanley Cup with Vegas during the 2022-23 season, he put together a 16-7-1 record, a 2.50 goals against average, and a .915 save percentage. During the playoffs, he went 11-4 while recording a 2.17 goals against average and a .932 save percentage.
Even though he lost two of his three starts in the following postseason, Hill nonetheless recorded a 1.70 goals against average and a .931 save percentage.
What could a trade for Adin Hill look like for Buffalo?
While a 10-team no trade list could complicate things, the Sabres should nonetheless inquire about what a trade would take.
Considering Hill's past postseason success, there is a chance Vegas could up their asking price for Hill. But the fact that they need to find cap space could mean Vegas entices Buffalo to take on his salary while asking for minimal in return.
Let's consider both possibilities.
A straight acquisition of Hill's contract would likely see Vegas ask for a netminder, a prospect, and a pick. There's a decent chance that the Golden Knights would ask for Lyon, but the Sabres could attempt to offer Devon Levi as a younger and cheaper option who can still put together strong performances. I would stay away from offering Colten Ellis; he should be given a little more time to prove he is capable of taking on a starting role in Buffalo.
That said, if Hill arrives via a trade with Levi as the goalie going the other way, one of UPL, Lyon or Ellis will need to get moved to create space.
In terms of a prospect, the only untouchables would be forward Konsta Helenius, who spent 63 games this season in Rochester and perhaps former defenseman Radim Mrtka, the club's 2025 first-round pick. The former will be favored to make Buffalo's roster next season, while the latter will likely earn a trip to Buffalo for the upcoming preseason.
Any draft pick going Vegas' way would likely be one of Buffalo's mid-round picks; they hold 12 fourth, fifth, and sixth-round picks over the next four drafts.
In terms of the second option, Vegas could entice Buffalo to take on Hill's relatively-lofty contract with two sweeteners. The first would take the form of Vegas eating up to 50% of Hill's salary, though this could also be a part of any straight acqusition of Hill's contract sans sweetener. The second would see Vegas offer their third-round pick in this year's draft; considering that the Sabres don't hold a third-round pick, this could at least keep the front office on the phone.
That said, Vegas would still ask for a considerable return. The Golden Knights would still ask for a goaltender, though the chance they ask for Lyon is far less pronounced in this scenario than one involving a straight acquisition of Hill's contract. They would also likely ask for a late-round draft pick; Buffalo can send one of the seven sixth or seventh-round picks that they hold over the next four drafts.
Would such a trade be worth it for the Sabres?
Say what you will about Hill's performance declining, but it's generally a win when a team can get a veteran netminder that has Stanley Cup-winning experience.
At the same time, Buffalo should look to avoid getting swindled by Vegas. The Sabres' front office must be well aware of both Hill's struggles and his playoff success, and they must ensure that Vegas' asking price is reasonable considering both. If their conditions aren't met, the Sabres should opt to look elsewhere for goaltending help.
While there are more pressing needs for the Sabres to address this offseason, it would be nice for the front office to reinforce the goaltending and give Luukkonen some extra help. And given that much of the goaltending outside of Luukkonen is a bit of a question mark in the long term (and even UPL isn't a sure thing), adding some term to the goaltending unit would still allow for the front office to refocus their attention elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
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