Sabres winger could be sleeping giant who helps end playoff drought

The Buffalo Sabres' trade of winger JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth drew mediocre reviews across the hockey world. Moving a player who's scored 67 NHL goals by the age of 23 comes with a lot of risk, but the potential emergence of Josh Doan could change the entire outlook of the deal by next summer.

Doan, who's also 23, hasn't matched the early-career success of Peterka. The Arizona native tallied 12 goals and 16 assists across 62 appearances for Utah (and its predecessor, the Arizona Coyotes). His underlying numbers paint a far more promising picture, though.

Since entering the league, the son of former NHL sniper Shane Doan led hockey in relative expected goals for percentage at 5-on-5, which measures a player's individual impact compared to the rest of his team. It's a helpful statistic when trying to quantify a player's performance on a non-contending squad.

A look at the other high-profile names on the list (via Natural Stat Trick; minimum 700 minutes over the past two seasons) suggests it's a valuable metric:

1. Josh Doan (Mammoth): +10.12%

2. Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa Senators): +8.72%

3. Zach Hyman (Edmonton Oilers): +8.65%

4. Brandon Hagel (Tampa Bay Lightning): +8.40%

5. Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): +8.28%

Connor McDavid, the Oilers center generally regarded as the NHL's best player, checks in at No. 6. So, while no single stat is enough to completely judge a player, it's promising Doan sits atop a ranking that includes a group of top-tier contributors.

Yes, it's important to understand the sample size is limited and Doan was playing some sheltered minutes with the Mammoth. He wasn't frequently on the ice against the McDavids and MacKinnons of the world. It's still impressive how well he played in the role he was assigned, though.

Former NHL video coach Steve Peters took a closer look at the subtle ways the Arizona State product can have a major impact on games:

Meanwhile, the Utah-Buffalo trade almost didn't happen because of Doan's presence in the deal.

The latest Buffalo Sabres: Embedded, a behind-the-scenes video series on YouTube, included conversations surrounding the Peterka deal. At one point, Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams checked in with Mammoth counterpart Bill Armstrong about the possible Doan-Michael Kesselring package.

"He's just not moving Doan he said," Adams says in the video about his discussion with Armstrong (22:27 mark). "Too core of a guy. He clearly values him."

Eventually, the Mammoth circled back to make the deal as discussed: Doan and Kesselring for Peterka.

Doan's numbers may not explode right away in Buffalo. He's likely ticketed for a third-line role to open the 2025-26 season, barring injuries. That would likely put him on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn, which is a trio with some real upside but also some question marks.

A strong start would give the 2021 second-round pick an opportunity to climb the lineup once injuries do arise. The Sabres also have uncertainty in their top six—Will Zach Benson take the next step? Can Jason Zucker match his strong 2024-25 campaign?—so there could be room for a lot of upward mobility and additional playing time.

As a result, it's possible Doan, whose impressive performance defensively aids his case for a larger role, ends the season playing big minutes for a Buffalo team desperate to end a 14-year playoff drought. He may never match Peterka's goal-scoring ability, but his all-around game could far exceed the one-dimensional new member of the Mammoth.