Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch will be the top forward available if he hits the NHL free-agent market on July 1 and, with contract talks between the sides seemingly stalled out, it appears there's a strong chance he'll find a new home before the 2026-27 season.
But will it be the right home? Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic isn't so sure based on the current market conditions, which don't feature a bunch of Stanley Cup contenders with the salary-cap space necessary to survive an intense bidding war for the 30-year-old power forward.
"For certain teams, Tuch will be very worth it," Luszczyszyn wrote Monday. "Given Buffalo's internal options at wing, I'm not convinced it's the right risk for the Sabres. Finding a team where Tuch makes sense at this price — win-now, ample cap space, five-on-five need — might be tricky. With a lot of money out there, it's very easy to see Tuch going to the wrong team."
The difference between what the Boston College product can command on the open market and what he'll be worth over the length of a max-term contract (eight years with the Sabres or seven years with a new club) is a legitimate point of contention.
AFP Analytics projects Tuch to receive a seven-year, $70.82 million contract ($10.12 million AAV) in free agency. His reported asking price has been closer to $10.5 million and, given the limited UFA options this year, an $11 million salary or more isn't out of the question.
Yet, Luszczyszyn pegs the winger's true market value over a long-term deal at just $7.8 million per year, taking into account the (potentially significant) drop off in performance expected by a player as he enters his mid- to upper-30s.
At that rate, an eight-year extension comes in at a more reasonable $62.4 million for Buffalo. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen would likely feel far more comfortable with that number, but there's simply no indication Tuch is willing to come anywhere close to it.
The Sabres' hesitant stance may also hold true for the NHL's top championship hopefuls, which could leave the 2014 first-round pick to choose between teams a little further from raising the Cup if his main focus is merely maximizing his financial windfall.
There'd be nothing wrong with Tuch taking that stance, either. He's been playing under an extremely team-friendly contract in Buffalo since arriving in the 2021 blockbuster trade with the Vegas Golden Knights headlined by Jack Eichel, and this is probably his last chance to cash in at peak value.
It does create a tension point for the Sabres alternate captain, though. Does he want the highest salary, the best chance to chase down a Cup or a combination of both? How much will his Central New York roots factor in? The perfect fit is different based on his answer to those questions.
One thing's for sure: Kekalainen is wise to pick a number on Tuch and stick to it. It's unlikely the star's next contract will age well, especially if the final AAV inches close to (or above) $11 million, and Buffalo has a lot of other business to handle this summer.
Could Alex Tuch sign a last-minute contract extension with the Buffalo Sabres?
Although things look bleak between Tuch and the Sabres at the moment, it's impossible to completely rule out a change of heart right before NHL free agency gets underway.
Tuch, and his representatives, understand this is his best opportunity to take full advantage of market conditions. If he's still playing by the time his next contract ends, he'll be in his late-30s and likely signing incentive-laden one-year deals.
So, they're playing the game by keeping the UFA option in play as long as possible.
The Syracuse native, who grew up rooting for the Sabres, suggested during his final press conference of the season that he'll consider factors beyond money, though.
"I mean, I love it here," Tuch told reporters in May. "I've loved my time here. I've loved playing hockey here. I'm going to do whatever's best for myself and my family. That's all. That's my power and consideration. Like I said, I don't know how talks are going to proceed. I don't know what they're going to say. I don't know the future. But my main priority is my family and where we'll be, where my kids will grow up and who we surround my kids with. There's a lot of aspects that go into it."
Even if he'd prefer to stay in Buffalo, however, that doesn't mean he's going to deliver a monster "hometown discount" to make it happen.
Instead, his representatives will use that looming free-agent status to push the Sabres' offer as high as possible before it'd be time for Kekalainen and Co. to start using that money elsewhere.
Perhaps things play out exactly as they're currently trending, with Buffalo's front office unwilling to meet Tuch's asking price before the sides go their separate ways after a successful five-year run.
But maybe, just maybe, the productive two-way winger's heart remains in Western New York and he decides to re-sign at an agreeable number a day or two before the NHL market is set to open.
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