Another day, another update suggesting Alex Tuch is probably entering his final weeks as a member of the Buffalo Sabres.
ESPN's Emily Kaplan reported Wednesday that Tuch, an impending unrestricted free agent who can hit the NHL open market on July 1, and the Sabres stopped discussing a potential contract extension during the latter stages of the regular season and into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
"At that point, they were not close on money," Kaplan wrote. "They'll now circle back on conversations, and Tuch's camp feels as if it doesn't yet have a final answer from GM Jarmo Kekalainen. So the question is whether that gap has narrowed into striking distance."
It feels like there's not enough time for the sides to overcome their differences.
The Sabres opened negotiations last offseason with an offer in the neighborhood of $8 million per season while the front office was led by former general manager Kevyn Adams. They "budged a bit" after Kekalainen took over, but an agreement never appeared imminent.
Meanwhile, Tuch's reported asking price has remained relatively steady around $10.5 million annually since last summer. There's been some discussion that number could now creep closer to an $11 million AAV because he'll be the best forward available in NHL free agency this year.
It doesn't seem like Buffalo, which is prioritizing long-term extensions for Zach Benson and Bowen Byram, is prepared to meet those demands. That's particularly true because the club is dealing with a tight salary-cap situation this offseason.
The Sabres knew there was an asset-management risk associated with keeping Tuch as an "own rental," and it appears there's a strong chance he'll leave Western New York without the franchise getting any future value in return. They did end their 14-year playoff drought, though.
Buffalo Sabres must clear out cap space if they want to retain Alex Tuch, other roster pillars
Let's operate from the perspective the Sabres want to re-sign Tuch while still getting Benson and Byram their new deals. At bare minimum, they'll also want to retain RFA center Peyton Krebs and they'd strongly prefer to bring back fourth-line winger Beck Malenstyn.
Here's a look at how much those deals could cost via AFP Analytics:
- Alex Tuch: seven years, $70.82 million ($10.12 million AAV)
- Zach Benson: seven year, $48.83 million ($6.98 million AAV)
- Peyton Krebs: three years, $10.64 million ($3.55 million AAV)
- Beck Malenstyn: three year, $7.92 million ($2.64 million AAV)
Byram isn't listed because he's not a free agent this summer — he's eligible to become a UFA in 2027 — but we'll peg him at $8 million per season. His extension also wouldn't begin until 2027-28, so the deal wouldn't change next season's cap, though it'd obviously impact planning for future years.
Even just the four other players account for $23.29 million in necessary cap space for next campaign, however, and that's a roster without a reserve forward or defenseman. Adding two more players, even at the league minimum, brings the total to around $25 million.
Here's the problem: Buffalo only has an estimated $12.9 million in available space, per PuckPedia.
So, in order to accomplish all of that business, the Sabres would need to move out about $12 million in salary without bringing any cap charges back in return.
Buffalo would love to get out of the final year of Jordan Greenway's bloated contract ($4 million AAV), but it'd probably have to pay a draft pick for another team to take him. While the Sabres could move Jason Zucker ($4.75 million AAV) or Jack Quinn ($3.38 million AAV), both would require replacements on the active roster.
Then there's goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($4.75 million AAV). Would the Blue and Gold feel comfortable going into 2026-27 with Alex Lyon, Colten Ellis and Devon Levi as their three goalies? It'd be a risk for a club with growing expectations.
Sure, Buffalo could try to pull off a few early blockbuster trades that result in a net gain to its cap space, but getting all of that accomplished before July 1 is a long shot.
In short? The numbers simply don't work.
Barring some unexpected player movement, the Sabres would have to sacrifice a lot just to meet Tuch's asking price on a contract that likely won't age well at all into his mid- and upper-30s.
Kekalainen also has to keep in mind players like Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius are going to need extensions of their own in the coming years. Maintaining as much financial flexibility as possible will be crucial now that the organization has finally turned a corner.
As a result, the best option for the Sabres is probably letting Tuch walk, though it will undoubtedly leave a void given his contributions in all three phases of the game.
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