Sabres projected first pairing boasts a familiar duo

After projecting each of the Buffalo Sabres lines at forward, it's time to shift gears and project the defensive rotation, starting with the first pairing. As the headline suggests, the Blue and Gold should boast familiar faces in the first pairing, and there’s one name you can probably guess without looking. 

As for the second name, well, they may have taken a “step back,” or at least seemingly, last season. But when you take a longer look at their advanced numbers, you’ll know why I placed them where I did. 

Since lines and pairings change all the time in hockey, articles like these are projecting who will likely play where next season for the bulk of the games, with all other things being equal - like projected play, health, etc. The two players listed won’t grace the top pairing in every game, but they have formed quite the duo in the past. 

Rasmus Dahlin

You knew there would be one given here, and that given comes in the form of Rasmus Dahlin, who should once again keep his game trending north. Over the last two seasons, he not only received Norris votes, but he set career-highs in categories like goals scored, shots blocked, and hits, so it’s only fitting that the Blue and Gold’s most consistent skater will see more ice time than any other. 

Career-highs also came in the Corsi For at even strength, and he also saw better numbers in on-ice save percentage, plus on-ice goals allowed, at 89.7 and 77, respectively. Still not great numbers, but how often did the Sabres group of forwards make life tough for Dahlin and goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

This season, additions to what we’re projecting in the bottom-six for the third and fourth lines should remedy the issue. If it does, expect a record-breaking year (in personal bests) from Dahlin across the board, especially with goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen pitching in.  

Mattias Samuelsson

After some debate here, I rolled with Mattias Samuelsson, someone who only needs to stay healthy, and he’ll regain the form he enjoyed from 2022-23. Last season, that wasn’t the case, as he lasted just 41 games before the Sabres shelved him for the rest of the year. 

But here are some numbers to consider for Samuelsson, and they will show you just how effective he was last season, even if the Blue and Gold didn’t win as often when he played. At even strength, his on-ice save percentage sat at 91.2, and he only saw 30 goals go by. 

By contrast, Samuelsson, in 2022-23, was on the ice for 51 goals allowed in the 55 games he appeared in, or 0.927 goals per contest. In just 41 games last season, he was out there for just 0.731 per, again at even strength.

Not bad numbers at all, so all Samuelsson needs to do is replicate those numbers from last season, be disruptive, and stay healthy. Oh, and as an added bonus, his Corsi For in that situation was 50.5, also an upward trend, further making him worthy of seeing most of his ice time on the first pairing if his body can handle it.