The Buffalo Sabres earned a long-awaited return to the NHL playoffs with a remarkable 33-6-2 run from early December through mid-March. Yet, as the postseason gets set to begin in a few weeks, the previously red-hot team is suddenly struggling.
Buffalo has posted a 2-3-2 record over its last seven games, and it was outscored 10-3 in its past two contests, road losses to the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals.
The Sabres, who made outworking opponents their hallmark trait during their three-month surge, have struggled to match the intensity of foes fighting for their playoff lives.
Now the question becomes: How much will the Blue and Gold's ill-timed cold streak impact their chances of making a deep run in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Here's a look at the last 10 Cup winners and their record over the final 12 games of the regular season:
Season | Cup Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
2024-25 | Florida Panthers | 5-6-1 |
2023-24 | Florida Panthers | 7-4-1 |
2022-23 | Vegas Golden Knights | 8-1-3 |
2021-22 | Colorado Avalanche | 6-5-1 |
2020-21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7-4-1 |
2019-20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5-6-1 |
2018-19 | St. Louis Blues | 9-1-2 |
2017-18 | Washington Capitals | 9-3-0 |
2016-17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6-4-2 |
2015-16 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 10-2-0 |
There are two different ways to look at that data.
First, teams don't necessarily need to showcase top form immediately before the playoffs begin in order to contend for the Cup. In fact, the last six championship winners have posted a combined 38-26-8 record for a relatively modest .583 points percentage in those last-12 situations.
That said, playing terrible hockey right before the postseason is essentially disqualifying. Only two of the Cup raisers over the past decade were under .500 in their last dozen regular-season contests and both were only slightly below the break-even mark (5-6-1).
That puts some pressure on the Sabres to finish strong over the next five games. History would be firmly against them making a serious charge toward a title if they limp to the finish line.
As Buffalo attempts to bounce back starting Monday night against the Atlantic Division rival Tampa Bay Lightning, let's examine the latest edition of our Sabres player grades series focused on Saturday's frustrating 6-2 defeat by the Caps.
Alex Lyon pulled as Buffalo Sabres' downturn continues in April 4 loss to the Washington Capitals
Sabres player grades
Player | Grade (1-10) |
|---|---|
Rasmus Dahlin | 8.5 |
Beck Malenstyn | 8 |
Alex Tuch | 7.5 |
Peyton Krebs | 6 |
Zach Benson | 6 |
Mattias Samuelsson | 5.5 |
Jack Quinn | 5.5 |
Logan Stanley | 5 |
Tyson Kozak | 5 |
Jordan Greenway | 5 |
Ryan McLeod | 4.5 |
Josh Norris | 4.5 |
Tage Thompson | 4.5 |
Josh Doan | 4 |
Jason Zucker | 4 |
Colten Ellis | 4 |
Bowen Byram | 3.5 |
Owen Power | 3.5 |
Zach Metsa | 3 |
Alex Lyon | 2 |
Buffalo Player of the Game: Rasmus Dahlin
If Sabres fans are looking for a silver lining amid the recent losses, Dahlin's play certainly stands out. The 25-year-old Swede has recorded 32 points (10 goals and 22 assists) over his past 26 games, including a goal and a helper in Saturday's loss to Washington.
The pairing of Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson was the only defensive duo who were able to keep the Capitals offense under control, and that tandem has been Buffalo's most dependable for a vast majority of the campaign. They'll log big minutes in the playoffs.
The Sabres lean heavily on their defense corps to help generate offense by starting transition breakouts and joining the rush, so it's a great sign their captain is playing so well as the playoffs near. Now the rest of the group (mostly Owen Power and Bowen Byram) has to step back up to help get things back on track.
Sabres quick hits
- Alex Lyon was pulled by Lindy Ruff after giving up three goals in the game's first six months. The veteran goalie didn't receive a ton of defensive support but he's looked uncomfortable between the pipes over his last three starts. His movement is too mechanical and his reads are too slow. It seems like he's overthinking everything at the moment.
- Colten Ellis was decent in relief considering it was his first appearance since Feb. 3.
- It's time for Buffalo to try out different options for the third pair. That includes alternatives without Logan Stanley, who's brought some much-needed grit defensively but often lacks the foot speed to keep up with the club's preferred up-tempo style of play.
- The Sabres have been falling into a rut after giving up goals that was all too common throughout their 14-year playoff drought. It had been far less of an issue in recent months and they have to leave those issues in the rearview mirror quickly.
- Buffalo (43-26-8) can bring an end to the bad vibes with a regulation win over Tampa Bay (48-22-6) to revitalize its division title hopes on Monday night (7 p.m. ET).