Buffalo Sabres' contender status questioned by NHL analysts

Alex Tuch reset expectations for the Buffalo Sabres, and the team's long-suffering fanbase, with a bold declaration back in January.

'We're coming in with a lot of confidence. Everybody's coming in trying to prove themselves and we're trying to prove as a team that we're legit. We're not just going to go for the playoffs. We're going to go for the Cup," Tuch told reporters after a win over the Los Angeles Kings. "That's our goal — to get better each and every day. That's it. That's the end goal, honestly."

Although those comments felt overly auspicious at the time, they became more realistic with each passing win as the Sabres soared up the Eastern Conference standings.

Now, as Buffalo enters the stretch run of the NHL regular season with a chance to secure an Atlantic Division title and potentially the No. 1 seed in the East, it feels like anything less than a deep postseason run will be a disappointment for the resurgent organization.

Not everybody is buying Sabres stock ahead of the playoffs, though.

Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski of ESPN spoke with several members of the NHL analytics community about whether Buffalo's success is sustainable, and there was ample skepticism in the responses they received.

In general, the analysts admitted the Sabres are a strong finishing team, which has held mostly true over the past couple years, but they weren't so sure that'll work in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

"The Sabres' finishing talent is legitimate, but all finishing talent is inherently streaky, at every level of quality," Micah Blake McCurdy (HockeyViz.com) said. "Building a team around it makes you a little more vulnerable to cold spells that are extremely unlikely to stop a team from making the playoffs, but can easily lose them a playoff series."

Mike Kelly (NHL Network) added: "From a process standpoint, there is cause for concern during the heater the Sabres have been on since early December. Expected goals for and against are similar to what they were earlier in the season when things were not going well."

There's a longstanding belief teams who depend heavily on shooting talent are in danger once the playoffs begin because it's tougher to generate chances. A lot of postseason goals are gritty second- or third-chance opportunities around the crease.

"While they are making some of their own luck, it does not stand to reason that it would continue when the games are higher checking, and scoring chances are more difficult to come by," Rachel Kryshak (Betalytics) told ESPN.

All told, the general analytics viewpoint estimates the Sabres as a decent club, and probably one that belongs in the playoffs, but perhaps not a group destined for a Stanley Cup run.

"The Sabres are a good team, but I don't think we should discard the usual skepticism over a team running red-hot just because it's a good story," Jack Fraser (HockeyStats.com) told ESPN. "We have them dead average in expected goal differential, and I know that proprietary models have them in the same range."

So, while Buffalo has proven a lot of doubters wrong since its turnaround began in mid-December, the Blue and Gold still have their fair share of skeptics as the playoffs near.

What the underlying NHL analytics say about the Buffalo Sabres' breakthrough season

The uncertainty about what comes next for the Sabres, who will soon clinch their first postseason berth since 2011, stems from the difference between their actual results and the expected results.

Let's check out the sizable gap in all situations this season (via Natural Stat Trick):

Here's a look at the same numbers since Buffalo's hot streak began on Dec. 9:

There are a multitude of reasons the Sabres, who've posted a remarkable 34-7-4 record over their past 45 games, have been winning games at an elite rate over the past three-plus months, but two stand out above the rest: finishing and goaltending.

Buffalo's ability to convert its chances at a higher rate than opponents isn't a shock. It's a factor that often held true even when the Blue and Gold were an also-ran in recent seasons, and its roster has players who've proven their high-end finishing rates are no fluke, led by Tuch and Tage Thompson.

The top-tier performance between the pipes truly came out of nowhere, though.

Goalie play was the Sabres' biggest question mark entering the season. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was coming off a dreadful second season as a full-time starter and Alex Lyon, who was signed over the summer, was viewed as nothing more than a pedestrian backup.

Instead, UPL (.910 save percentage in 30 games) and Lyon (.909 SV% in 35 contests) have shared the crease to near perfection. It's allowed Buffalo to overcome underlying numbers that suggest they're closer to a break-even team, both in all situations and at 5-on-5.

So, perhaps a little caution is warranted when it comes to the Sabres, especially since their play between the pipes has dipped a little bit as of late. If Luukkonen and/or Lyon aren't in top form for the playoffs, the team's upside is significantly reduced.

That said, at some point more than three months of evidence can't be ignored, either. Leading the NHL in goal share over a 45-game sample is an incredible accomplishment and points toward a truly dangerous team, even if the analytics aren't quite as impressive.

Sabres fans, particularly those who've stuck with the organization through the Dark Ages, deserve to dream big as a postseason return appears on the horizon. At their best, the Blue and Gold are capable of giving any opponent a serious challenge in a seven-game series.

Does that mean Buffalo should start planning a championship parade? Perhaps not, but never say never.