Buffalo Sabres fans have become disenchanted amid the franchise's 14-year playoff drought, and it's hard to blame them after another mostly quiet offseason. Yet, a buzz about the team is beginning to build within the NHL analytics community.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic named the Sabres as his favorite team within the league's futures betting market on Thursday. He's bullish about the club's ability to beat its over/under line (82.5 points) and believes there's a realistic shot for Buffalo to reach the postseason.
"Just when everyone has given up on Buffalo, it feels like the team has what it takes to really surprise this year," Luszczyszyn wrote. "It's the classic post-hype breakthrough."
His positive outlook for the Sabres comes on the heels of a prediction from Jack Fraser (aka JFresh Hockey) that Buffalo will reach the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in 15 years. They are two of the most well-known names in hockey analytics.
Breaking down Dom's optimistic forecast
The core reason Luszczyszyn is more upbeat about the Sabres than the team's fans is his belief there's internal growth on the way. Buffalo supporters have heard that phrase so much over the past 14 years, and watched it fail to yield the desired results, that they've essentially become immune to it.
Yet, it's far to say the Sabres have a lot of young players who could take a step forward this season, led by Zach Benson, Owen Power, Jiri Kulich and Josh Doan, among others.
"There are two things that the Sabres have going for them this season compared to last year: youth and improved depth," Luszczyszyn said. "There should be a fair bit of internal improvement forecasted, given how many players are in their prime or entering it, with Zach Benson being especially intriguing going into the year."
He's also not as down about the JJ Peterka trade with the Utah Mammoth as most analysts, stating: "On the depth front, the loss of JJ Peterka hurts, but his role can be filled internally via growth and is made up for by the holes that Josh Doan and especially Michael Kesselring fill."
They are all fair points, and within that lens it's absolutely possible the Sabres take a significant step forward after missing the playoffs by 12 points last season. That said, most Buffalo fans have entered the "see it to believe it" phase of fandom after several failed roster rebuilds over the years.
A hot start could get everyone in the 716 to start buying back into the Sabres, though.
What must go right for the 2025-26 Sabres
Along with the aforementioned internal improvement, the Sabres essentially need three things to fall into place if they're going to make the playoffs.
First and foremost, starting goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen needs to bounce back after a miserable 2024-25 season where he lost the top spot on the depth chart to journeyman James Reimer for a short time. UPL's numbers must be closer to 2023-24 (2.57 goals against average and .910 save percentage) than last season (3.20 GAA and .887 SV%) if Buffalo is going to emerge as a threat.
Second, Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson must produce like elite-level superstars and stay healthy for a vast majority of the campaign. Dahlin's absence was a major factor in the team's 13-game losing streak last year and Thompson has dealt with nagging injuries in recent campaigns.
Finally, the special teams need to vastly improve. Buffalo ranked 23rd on the penalty kill (76.3%) and 24th on the power play (18.8%) in 2024-25. Those numbers have to surge toward the top 10 in both categories if the team is going to become more consistent.
The bottom line remains pretty much the same. Yes, the Sabres have enough talent in the locker room to fight for one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The problem is their margin for error is incredibly small due to a lack of high-impact game-changers.
So, while it's nice to see some optimism from respected names in the analytics community, Buffalo's play during a favorable early portion of the schedule will show it's warranted.